The trade deadline is upon us and the Royals have sort of bought, but seem to be hesitant to decide anything.
With the trade deadline looming, the Royals have made three moves, none of which change what this team is fundamentally. There could be a bigger move coming, but we are not hearing about much of anything, and time is running out. I was hoping to see the front office decide what this team is at some point and start moving in a direction.
The moves that the Royals have made leading up to the deadline include two old position players that do not move the needle much and signing a pitcher already on the team to an extension. This team got marginally better by adding Randal Grichuk, but Adam Frazier is probably worse than the player they traded for him – Cam Devanney – and Seth Lugo was already on the team. For 2025, Lugo changes literally nothing. He was in the rotation, he will continue to be in the rotation. So, they have been buying, but not in a way that moves the playoff odds for this season in a positive direction. If you were going all in, this would not be how to do it.
The Royals are also clearly not sellers, so far at least. They have not moved anything for prospects. Rushing Hunter Harvey back after one complex league inning and two Double-A innings is one of the shortest rehab stints I can remember. That seems like a move showcasing him for trade, though I doubt any teams will give up much for a reliever who has only thrown 12 innings for Kansas City since the trade this time last summer. They obviously aren’t trading Lugo or Bubic now. There are a few other players they could move, but none of them would bring back a huge haul – Carlos Estévez or Freddie Fermin could make some sense. Regardless, I don’t see a big haul coming from becoming full-on sellers now that Seth Lugo is locked in for a couple more years.
That leaves a third path, yet to be explored. There were rumors of a Jarren Duran addition. This would be more of a buying and selling situation. Duran would make a lot of sense for the Royals based on the years of control, age, and outfield ability. He will likely never be as good as he was in 2024, but even this year is on pace for 3+ wins while hitting slightly above league average. This type of trade is the type that is hard for teams to pull the trigger on in a lot of cases. You would need to give a lot, not some AA bullpen arm, but an actual big league or near big league-ready starter. Carter Jensen is probably who the Red Sox wanted, and that is a little more painful to give up than Andrew Hoffman was a few days ago.
If the Royals add, I would prefer it be this style. Add by trading strength for weakness. Catcher is the one strength in the farm system, so it is an obvious place to draw from. Taking into account Salvador Perez’s age and how long you think Fermin can be a viable option, this requires some careful thought, Blake Mitchell is hitting okay in high A and nearing his 21st birthday, so it depends also on what teams (including KC) think of him or Ramon Ramirez which catcher(s) are movable for something that can bolster the outfield.
The second place of strength is first base. With Vinnie and Cags, you could trade one and still have your first base locked down for a while, assuming Jac gets healthy and figures out the big leagues a bit more. I am very confident the team won’t move either of them, but you could. The last is starting pitching. Noah Cameron’s hot start makes him an interesting piece, but he is hard to trade when you are depending on Rich Hill and someone to be named as fifth starter (Kuechel?). Ben Kudrna and Luinder Avila are the nearer to pro-ready prospects. Neither is a top prospect, but both could have value. Otherwise, you have to drop to A ball for the David Shields and Hiro Wyatt sorts. Any of them being traded, in this scenario, would need to be for players controlled through at least 2027 to line up with the way they have structured the Lugo and Wacha contracts along with the control over key position players.
I am getting the feeling the Royals are going to do next to nothing these last couple days leading up to the deadline. That means they have a team with very low playoff odds standing pat, and a team structure for next year that still has some gaping holes. In my opinion, that is not a great spot to be in for either. Splitting the baby rarely works.
I was hoping the front office would commit to a path and start building for either now or next year. Maybe the injuries ruined their plans, or maybe they have been told their budget for next year and have ideas on how to use free agency to fix the issues going into next year. It is hard to know from the outside, but I would like to see them pick a direction and strategize around that as hope is not my favorite strategy.