Have the White Sox already hit rock bottom?
Last year the White Sox set a record for futility with 121 losses, the modern-day MLB record in a single season. The Royals feasted on that futility, going 12-1 against the White Sox, while going just 74-75 against everyone else on their way to a playoff spot.
The White Sox aren’t quite as bad as they were last year, but they give the Royals an opportunity to feast some more this week. They went 5-21 in April, but have played better in May, winning three of their last four.
Chicago White Sox (10-24) vs. Kansas City Royals (19-16) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
White Sox: 3.65 runs scored/game (24th in MLB), 4.35 runs allowed/game (16th)
Royals: 3.43 runs scored/game (27th), 3.40 runs allowed/game (4th)
Only three teams have hit fewer home runs than the White Sox as a team, only two teams have hit worse than their .216 team batting average, and they are dead last in slugging. Former third-overall pick Andrew Vaughn has struggled mightily this year, with a 38 wRC+, the fourth-worst among qualified hitters. Luis Robert Jr. has hit just .165/.280/.294 and overall has the sixth-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 31.6 percent.
Third baseman Miguel Vargas has begun to warm up, hitting .348/.434/.522 with two home runs in his last 13 games. Catcher Edgar Quero was a top 100 prospect before the season according to MLB Pipeline and Baseball Prospectus, and hit .333/.444/.412 in 15 games at Triple-A this year. Former Royals outfielder Andrew Benintendi is in the third year of a five-year, $75 million contract, but has hit just .245/.308/.376 with the White Sox. He is day-to-day with a left calf injury sustained over the weekend.
The White Sox are an average defensive team by most metrics, with Lenyn Sosa and Jacob Amaya playing strong defense in the middle infield, but Benintendi and Vaughn serving as liabilities. They have a 79 percent success rate in steals, with Luis Robert Jr. leading the American League in both steals (15) and caught stealing (5).
Shane Smith has been consistently beating expectations. He was signed out of college by the Brewers as an undrafted free agent, then was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft last December when the White Sox selected him. The 25-year-old has yet to give up more than three runs in a start, and opponents are hitting just .200/.301/.270 against him with one home run. The right-hander throws a 95 mph four-seamer, a change, slider, curve, and sinker.
Rookie Sean Burke was named the Opening Day starter, and he impressed by tossing six shutout innings against the Angels. He matched that performance his last time out againt the Brewers, but struggled in the five starts in between. The 25-year-old put up big strikeout numbers last year, but with an underwhelming 4.62 ERA in 16 starts for Triple-A Charlotte before putting up a 1.42 ERA in 19 big league innings with the White Sox. He throws a 94 mph four-seamer, a slider, curve, and a change-up up he throws mostly against lefties.
Jonathan Cannon was a 1.9 rWAR pitcher with a 4.49 ERA in 124 1/3 innings for the White Sox in his rookie year last season. He gave up just one run in five innings in his MLB debut against the Royals, and gave up just six runs in 18 innings against them overall, although the White Sox lost all three games. Cannon relies mostly on a cutter, and a change that opponents are hitting just .139 against. He also throws a lot of sinkers, part of why he has a 39 percent groundball rate.
Davis Martin has held the Royals to a 1.69 ERA in two career starts. He has gone at least five innings in every start, giving up zero earned runs in two of them. He has an odd reverse split this year where righties are hitting .326/.367/.494 against him. He throws a 93 mph fastball, but opponents are hitting .409 against his slider.
The White Sox bullpen has a 4.47 ERA with the seventh-highest walk rate. They have had just four save opportunities – by far the fewest in baseball – and have converted just one of them. Mike Vasil was a Rule 5 pick from the Mets, and currently has the 15th-lowest ERA among relievers. Brandon Eisert has the tenth-lowest walk rate among relievers. Cam Booser has a 57 percent flyball rate, fifth-highest among relievers.
The White Sox are still a crummy team, but they have a bit of young talent, primarily in the starting rotation, that could give fans some hope. They don’t look like a 121-loss team, but this should still be a series the Royals should win, and perhaps even sweep.