The Royals have the longest drought in baseball.
With the season still early, and the offense sputtering like an old car, I’ve been looking at more arcane offensive outputs. Specifically, when will another Royals player hit for the cycle?
The Royals currently have the longest no-cycle drought in Major League Baseball. The last Royals hitter to hit for the cycle was George Brett, way back on July 25, 1990, in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Since that time there have been 127 cycles. The Royals are the only team who has not had a cycle in the 21st century. The team with the second-longest cycle drought? That would be the New York Yankees, whose last cycle was by former Royals outfielder Melky Cabrera in August of 2009.
There’s no significance to hitting a cycle, other than the fact that it’s difficult to do. Interestingly, there have been 326 no-hitters thrown in MLB history. There have been 349 players who have hit for the cycle. The way pitchers are handled today, I’m not sure we’ll ever see another 9-inning no-hitter thrown by just one pitcher. The Royals haven’t had a no-hitter since Bret Saberhagen threw one on August 26, 1991.
The Kansas City Athletics never had a player hit for the cycle in their 13-year history. The Royals have only had six cycles in their history. The first was by Freddie Patek on July 9, 1971, against Jim Perry of the Minnesota Twins.
Big John Mayberry was the second Royal (and the most unlikely) to hit for the cycle, pulling it off on August 5, 1977. What made this cycle unusual is Big John only hit 19 triples in his 15-year career. Mayberry only hit one triple in the 1977 season but hit it at the right time.
Then Royal fans got spoiled. George hit his first career cycle on May 28, 1979. This one comes with an asterisk since three of the hits came in extra innings. It was a helluva game though as George hit his second home run of the night in the bottom of the 16th inning to give the Royals a walk-off against the Baltimore Orioles. With the walk-off dinger, George became only one of six players to have a walk-off as part of their cycle.
Frank White hit his first career cycle a couple months later, on September 24, 1979. Frank had his second cycle on August 3, 1982. Starting with Mayberry, that makes four cycles in six seasons. Hey, this stuff is easy! Wrong.
Several Royals have come close since George’s effort. One night against the Twins in the old Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, I witnessed Miguel Olivo pick up a triple, home run and a single in just the first four innings. Olivo had three more at-bats that night and could not get the elusive double. Darion Blanco came close to hitting a cycle back in 2023, needing only a home run. His ninth inning blast hit towards the top of the left-center wall, resulting in a double. That was a major disappointment.
Bobby Jr. has come close a couple of different times. Hitting a cycle is hard. You must have either a combo of speed and power or a run of incredible luck. It helps to be in the top five of the batting order which gives a player better odds of picking up an extra at-bat. Eventually, someone on the Royals roster will pull it off. Drew Waters came close against Colorado on April 22nd, falling just a double short.
Here are my betting odds for the 2025 season.
0%
Sal Perez – Cap isn’t going to hit a triple. He’s only had 11 in his career but only one in the past eight seasons. Unless an outfielder breaks a leg or has a heart attack chasing one of Salvy’s ropes, a triple isn’t going to happen. And even with a broken leg or heart attack, Salvy may just be able to stretch it into a double.
Hunter Renfroe, Drew Waters, Caven Biggio, Freddy Fermin, MJ Melendez, Tyler Tolbert. I lumped these guys together for similar reasons: can’t make contact. Can’t leg out a triple. Won’t get enough at-bats. Not enough power or contact to get a home run and triple the same game.
Tolbert, Melendez and Waters have the speed to leg out a triple, I just don’t think they have the ability to have a four-hit game. Waters has already come close to making me eat crow.
10%
Vinnie and Mark Canha
Vinnie has three career triples including one in 2025. He certainly has the pop to get the home run and double. Can he have a night like Mayberry and leg out a triple?
Canha has had 14 career triples but only one in the last four seasons, so the odds are against him.
25%
Michael Massey, Kyle Isbel, Jonathan India and Darion Blanco. Hitting for the cycle is such a random occurrence that it wouldn’t surprise me if someone in this group pulled it off. For this quartet, the home run would be the tough hit to get. Isbel has 17 career triples and 20 career home runs. Much like Mayberry, it’d all have to come together on the right night. Surprisingly, India only has six career triples. Some of that could be from playing half of his games in the smaller confines of the Great American Ballpark. Blanco as we’ve seen, has the tools, he just doesn’t get enough at bats to have a shot.
80%
Maikel Garcia. Garcia has been swinging the bat well this season. He has nine career triples and 13 career home runs in just 308 career games. I would not be shocked to see him pull it off.
90%
Bobby Witt Jr. – No surprise here. Bobby will eventually hit for the cycle. He’s the rare player who hits for a high average, has speed to burn and hits with power. He’s already collected 28 triples in his very young career, including a league-leading 11 in 2023. He’s also stroked 84 home runs. He’ll eventually hit the cycle it’s just a matter of time.
The closest sporting comp I can think of to hitting for the cycle is a golfer hitting a hole in one. Statistics show that an average golfer collects a hole-in-one every 3,500 rounds. The key term is average. 3,500 rounds is a lot of golf. Back when I was still playing, I’ve estimated that I’ve probably played around 500 rounds in my life. Never had a hole-in-one. Never came especially close. Yet I know of people who have collected multiple holes in one.
Sports can be funny that way. Same with hitting for the cycle. It’s been done by superstars like Brett and Ted Williams and by journeymen like former Royals George Kottaras and Neifi Perez. Yes, Neifi never hit much but he did hit for the cycle while playing for the Rockies, on July 25, 1998, against the Cardinals. In a twelve-year career (how is that possible?) Perez hit 61 triples and 64 home runs. He had a five-year span where he hit about the same number of triples and home runs each season, which increased his odds, however small they may have been.
The odds on the internet say that for an average player, he has a chance of hitting for the cycle once every 4,400 games. For a superstar like Bobby, it drops to one every 2,700 games. I’m not sure I believe those odds. Pete Rose holds the record for games played with 3,562. Pete never hit for the cycle despite hitting 135 triples and 160 home runs along with a record 4,256 hits.
Odds and numbers be damned. Bobby is going to break the streak this summer. You read it here first.