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WAR Tells Us the Royals Are Largely Failing

June 25, 2025 by Last Word On Baseball

WAR (Wins above Replacement) has become one of the most revered statistics in the baseball sabermetrics movement.  For many baseball fans, WAR tries to capture everything a player does — hitting, fielding, baserunning, and pitching — and translates it into wins.

  • A WAR of 0 = you’re as good as a random minor leaguer.

  • 2 WAR = solid starter.

  • 5 WAR = All-Star.

  • 8+ WAR = MVP-level.

Recognizing its limitations, WAR is useful, despite many fans saying, “WAR, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing!”   WAR is an estimate, not a perfect stat.  A week-long hot streak doesn’t move WAR much.  Use it to group players by tiers, not split hairs over decimal points.

Using that scale and keeping those limitations in mind, it is useful to use the current WAR for each player at each position to determine their overall quality of play for this year’s Kansas City Royals.

Jun 24, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Maikel Garcia (11) gets a hand from catcher Salvador Perez (13) after scoring a run in the ninth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

Royals WAR Numbers Underscore Team’s Struggles

As would likely be expected, Bobby Witt Jr. clearly is the Royals leader, with an overall WAR of 3.6, which places him fourth in the American League among position players. Second on the team behind Witt is Maikel Garcia, with a 2.2 WAR. García is having a breakout 2025 campaign. He’s fused patience and power into a strong offensive profile, demonstrated clutch performance, and earned a central role in KC’s lineup. He’s a legitimate contributor in the top third of the order, and if he keeps this up, he could be in line for All-Star consideration.

This is where the news starts to turn bad. Vinnie Pasquantino has had some recent hot stretches, but his WAR for the season sits at 1.0. The left-handed hitting Pasquantino has hit .293 with 10 home runs against right-handers.  Against southpaws, he has only one home run to go with a .189 batting average.

Next in line is Freddy Fermin, whose playing time as a back-up catcher has been limited to half the games played by the top three. Yet, in only 45 games, Fermin has a 0.9 WAR, placing him barely behind Pasquintino.  Next, at 0.8, is Kyle Isbel, whose 0.8 is a sign of the problems with the Royals’ outfield. Collectively, the outfield has a -4.0 WAR, placing them ahead of only the Colorado Rockies in outfield WAR. As has been noted all season, the Royals’ outfield is offensively woeful, and is an area where the team needs serious offensive help.

Worthy of note is also the -0.8 WAR currently held by Salvador Perez, who has shown signs of shaking his early-season malaise. If Pérez can sustain his recent hot stretch—particularly riding improved contact quality and better situational hitting—his offensive line could align better with his career norms. But unless he raises his average and gets healthier OBP/SLG, he’s likely to continue underperforming relative to past MVP-level seasons.

A Silver Lining

Offsetting the offensive woes experienced this season by the team, the pitching staff has excelled. Kris Bubic and Michael Wacha have anchored the starting rotation.  Injury concerns have limited Cole Ragans for the season, but the Royals have nonetheless sustained decent pitching numbers. Noah Cameron seems to have established himself as a legitimate back-of-rotation starter.

Michael Wacha, K’ing the Side in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/zVYJMnLuS6

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 31, 2025

The Last Word

It’s easy to see the 2025 Royals are a team built on pitching and defense, punching below their weight offensively. Their middle-of-the-lineup inefficiency has pulled them down to roughly .500 baseball by mid-June. If their bats wake up—especially the power guys—they’ve got a path back into the Wild Card conversation. Otherwise, their ceiling for the rest of the summer looks like a sub-90-win season, barring moves at the trade deadline. They’ll have to ride on strong pitching and hope the lineup rallies.

 

Main Photo Credit: © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

The post WAR Tells Us the Royals Are Largely Failing appeared first on Last Word On Baseball.

Filed Under: Royals

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