Hey, who scheduled this to go opposite the NFL Draft?
The Royals and Tigers both underwent rebuilds at about the same time, and after some fits and starts, they are both off to good starts in 2024 that could signal a new era for each franchise. Both have had success through dominant pitching early on. The Tigers largely developed theirs in-house, while the Royals had to look outside the organization, but the result has been the same – a winning record so far.
The Tigers won their first five games of the season against the White Sox and Mets, but have split their last 14 games, all of which were against 2023 playoff teams. They’ve been a better road team, going just 4-7 at home so far. Their run differential is +7 and they are 6-4 in one-run games.
The series features a rare Friday afternoon game to accommodate the NFL Draft which is being held in Detroit. If you ever wanted an example of how dominant football is in this country, baseball is moving a Friday evening game – one of the best draws of the week – to the afternoon to avoid going up against an event where football players are just being selected. They’re not even playing!
Kansas City Royals (16-10) vs. Detroit Tigers (14-11) at Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Royals: 4.58 runs scored/game (12th in MLB), 3.08 runs allowed/game (1st)
Tigers: 4.04 runs scored/game (19th), 3.76 runs allowed/game (6th)
The Tigers have the fifth-lowest on-base percentage and slugging percentage in baseball, and only two teams have hit fewer home runs. But the offense has been hitting better lately – they have scored four or more runs in eight of their last nine games. Detroit has been successful on 14-of-15 stolen base attempts and they are seventh in baseball in Baserunning Runs.
Former first overall pick Spencer Torkelson broke out with a 30-home run season last year, but is off to a rough start this year and is still looking for his first home run in 2024. Kerry Carpenter has proved to be a nice find for the Tigers, hitting 20 home runs last year, but he’ll likely sit against lefties. Javier Báez continues to be a free agent disappointment for the Tigers, although he is 6-for-6 in stolen bases this year. Rookies Colt Keith and Parker Meadows have struggled to get going this season.
Reese Olson had a very solid rookie campaign with a 3.99 ERA in 103 2⁄3 innings for the Tigers last year. He has a groundball rate over 50 percent this year, and opponents are hitting just .200 against his slider with a 45 percent whiff rate. He has only lasted six innings in one of his four starts this year, but has yet to give up a home run.
Casey Mize is a former #1 overall pick who missed most of 2022 and all of 2023 following Tommy John surgery. He’s throwing harder than he did before the surgery, with his fastball sitting at 95 mph with a plus splitter and a below-average slider. He tossed six shutout innings his last time out against the Twins, earning his first win since 2021.
Since last August 1, Tarik Skubal has been the second-best pitcher in baseball by fWAR behind only Cole Ragans, with nine wins and a 2.04 ERA in 15 starts over that time. He has had three starts of 5 plus innings with no runs allowed already this year, and has twice struck out nine in an outing. The lefty throws a 96 mph fastball that is one of the most effective in baseball, with a changeup, sinker, and slider
The Tigers bullpen has a 2.06 ERA, best in all of baseball, but their FIP is 4.02. Their strikeout rates and walk rates collectively are near league-average, but opponents have just a .214 BABIP against them, lowest in baseball. Closer Jason Foley has allowed just one unearned run all year, and has converted all seven save opportunities. Shelby Miller revived his career as a Dodgers reliever last year, and has carried that performance over with the Tigers. In his return to Detroit, Andrew Chafin is allowing lefty hitters to bat just 1-for-12 against him.
The Royals and Tigers have had parallel rebuilds that may be arriving at the same point now. The Tigers have been better at developing young pitching, but the Royals have been better at developing young hitters. With NFL fans dreaming of potential across town at the draft, this series will feature young players trying to turn their potential into success.