The Royals could have acquired Jose Altuve for Eric Hosmer

Dayton Moore made right call in 2013.

One key rule in the legal profession that took me a while to learn is that sometimes the best case is the one you don’t take.

Based on news yesterday, it seems like that holds up true for major league general managers, too: sometimes the best move is the one you don’t make.

To catch you up, in case you don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, during a podcast with several former Royals, including Eric Hosmer, ex-Royals general manager and president of baseball operations Dayton Moore revealed that in 2013 he received a phone call from then-Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow with as straightforward of a trade offer as it gets – second baseman Jose Altuve for first baseman Eric Hosmer.

Moore declined. For as much flak as Moore deserves for the end of his tenure in Kansas City, he also deserves credit for building a World Series champion, which includes praise that he made the right call here.

Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

This trade offer brings up at least three different time periods that general managers, or whoever in the front office had trade-making authority, must weigh when considering a trade—the Now, the Near Future, and Down the Line.

The Now, in this case, appears to be during the 2013 season, as Moore says he was literally in Houston when Luhnow made the call. That season, Altuve, in his age-23 season, was coming off his first All-Star appearance, but he was still decidedly an average ballplayer. During his first two seasons (2011 and 2012), he posted only a 95 OPS+ while garnering 2.1 bWAR. He finished 2013 even worse—with an 83 OPS+ that included an OBP that dropped 24 points from the previous season while leading the American League in being caught stealing.

Hosmer was also in his age-23 season, but would go on to post a better bWAR (3.4 to 1.1) and OPS (.801 to .678) while winning his first of four career Gold Gloves. Hosmer took a giant step forward that season, raising his totals in runs, doubles, home runs, and RBIs while his batting average climbed 70 points, his OBP rose 49 points, and his slugging jumped 89 points.

For the Near Future, Altuve would break out in a big way in 2014, winning his first of three batting crowns, posting a career-high in hits while leading the majors in that category for the first of several times, and stealing a career-high 56 bases, which also led the American League. He made his second All-Star Game in 2014, starting a streak of five consecutive trips to the mid-summer classic.

Offensively, Hosmer took a step back in 2014, but still won a Gold Glove while helping the Royals reach their first World Series since 1985. During those playoffs, he went off for a slash line of .351/.439/.544. Always a leader, he stepped up that season, and it paid off the following year when the Royals repeated as American League champions while stomping the Mets in five games to capture the franchise’s second World Series title.

Hosmer may have had a few bright moments that postseason, too.

Altuve, still with the Astros today, went to four World Series while winning two of them, in 2017 and 2022. But those victories remain tainted to this day, something that wound up costing several Astros their jobs, including Luhnow.

Unfortunately for Altuve, this truly is a legitimate question: how much of his individual success, including his 2017 American League MVP, is a result of banging on trash cans?

Had Moore accepted this trade, would Altuve have had the same success in Kansas City that he had in Houston?

Those are both impossible questions to answer.

Down the Line, as stated, Altuve is still chugging along, though he’s struggling this year, having just turned 35. Hosmer, on the other hand, enjoyed an All-Star season in 2016 while setting a career-high in bWAR (4.4) in 2017 before leaving the Royals in free agency. It didn’t work out so well in San Diego, and he finished his career in limited fashion between the Red Sox and Cubs. He last played in 2023.

Final numbers for the two:

Eric Hosmer: 19.1 bWAR, 812 runs, 1,753 hits, 322 doubles, 20 triples, 198 home runs, 893 RBIs, 76 stolen bases, .276/.335./.427 slash line, four Gold Gloves, one All-Star team, one Silver Slugger, one World Series title.

Jose Altuve: 52.2 bWAR, 1,174 runs, 2,273 hits, 437 doubles, 31 triples, 233 home runs, 826 RBIs, 318 stolen bases, .305/.361/.465 slash line, one Gold Glove, nine All-Star teams, seven Silver Sluggers, one MVP, two World Series titles, and a marred reputation.

Moore made the right call for Now and the Near Future. It’s improbable to know, but it seems certain the Royals would not have won the World Series without Hosmer. Looking at the numbers Down the Line makes it look like the Royals missed out on this opportunity.

But baseball, as this episode reminds us, is about more than numbers.