The struggles of the bullpen this year might be alleviated by the playoff structure with extra off days.
The struggles of the Royals bullpen have been the biggest weakness of this team, either that or the outfield production. Still, heading into the playoffs I am somewhat optimistic that the bullpen will be a lot more solid in October.
The main reason for optimism is based around Chris Stratton, Will Smith, and Angel Zerpa not being in the pen. To be fair to Zerpa, he was pretty good through much of the first four months of the season. He just has not looked good at all recently. The other two have struggled a lot, though Smith had a period where he was getting it done in low leverage. Without them the bullpen will look something like this:
The Locks:
Lucas Erceg
Kris Bubic
Erceg has been great, kudos to JJ for that trade. Having him at the back of the bullpen has made late leads much more comfortable. Bubic has not been as dominant, but he has been better than most people realize. He has 27 strikeouts to 3 walks, which is phenomenal. The long ball has got him a couple of times, inflating his ERA to 3.80, but his FIP, xFIP, and xERA are all in the low twos. This is the back of the bullpen, and maybe we can add a third…
The bridges:
Alec Marsh
Brady Singer? part of the time
Michael Lorenzen
John Schreiber
Sam Long
This is where I hope Quatraro knows how to manage egos. In a wild card series, I would want Wacha as the third starter and Singer in the pen, but I’m sure Singer wants the start in game three. That way in game one or two, Singer can come in as the first one after the starter before handing it off to Bubic and Erceg. In game three, the plan would be to start Wacha for two times through the lineup, then hand it off to Singer to go through the lineup once to hopefully get through seven innings or close anyway. Brady’s stuff plays better out of the bullpen than Wacha’s would too, but Singer would go back to starting if they make the ALDS. Marsh, Lorenzen, and Long should all be able to handle sixth and seventh inning roles and Marsh or Lorenzen can step in if a starter gets in trouble early because they can go multiple innings. Schreiber is fine in lower leverage as long as you can avoid getting him up against a bunch of left-handed batters.
Three More Spots:
Carlos Hernandez
Daniel Lynch
James McArthur
Hunter Harvey
Steven Cruz
The way Hernandez is pitching right now, he is a weapon you want and the Royals do not have much of. He is a power righty that can get a needed strikeout and has limited his walks since coming back to the majors in August. Harvey is a great addition if healthy, but right now it is hard to know if he will be available. That last spot then needs to go to either Daniel Lynch or Steven Cruz. I almost wrote a whole article about Lynch, then the sane part of me reminded me that no one wants to read that. His sinker, slider, and changeup are all looking good, much better than the early part of the season according to Stuff+. He has not allowed a run in the five appearances since returning, and I think having those three pitches make up 70+% of his pitch mix is responsible. He would get the spot for me. I can make an argument that Cruz should get the spot, but I think he is so unproven that it is too risky. On the other hand, McArthur is risky too, as he showed last night. Please get healthy Harvey,
There you have it. A playoff bullpen with some risk, but when you are going to hand the bulk of the innings to Erceg, Bubic, Marsh, and Lorenzen, that I can feel okay about. Then piece the rest together based on matchups. It looks like it could be okay. To be clear, Cleveland and Atlanta and Philly, among others, still have a much better playoff bullpen. Cleveland’s top six or so are probably on par or better with Bubic. Philadelphia has Jose Ruiz as their sixth guy or so, and he is way more solid than Schreiber or McArthur.
Still, I think the Royals can piece together a reasonably solid pen for October.