The Cubs have a loaded farm system that could help the Royals.
The Royals have dropped 30 of their last 45 games, falling seven games below .500. As July begins, it’s increasingly likely Kansas City will pivot toward selling at the trade deadline.
One of the most coveted players will likely be All-Star pitcher Seth Lugo, and according to Matthew Trueblood of North Side Baseball, the Royals and Cubs have already engaged in talks.
According to Trueblood, who also writes at Baseball Prospectus, the Royals and Cubs had discussions last week about a deal that could send Lugo to the Cubs to help replace the loss of ace Justin Steele, who is out for the year.
Lugo certainly cuts the figure of a pitcher in whom the Cubs would have interest, and according to sources familiar with the Royals’ thinking, the Chicago farm system contains multiple players in whom Kansas City has long had interest.
He writes that the Royals could pursue top prospects like shortstop Jefferson Rojas or outfielder Owen Caissie, but that it would require a second piece from the Royals such as second baseman Jonathan India or closer Carlos Estévez. Rojas was ranked as the #97 prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline before the season, and the 20-year-old is currently hitting .272/.388/.450 with six home runs in 55 games at High-A. Caissie is a consensus top 100 prospect ranked as high as #54 by MLB Pipeline, currently hitting .263/.372/.504 with 12 home runs in Triple-A as a 22-year-old, but with a 31 percent strikeout rate.
The Cubs may balk at trading one of them, however, and may be more willing to trade 22-year-old outfielder Kevin Alcántara.
The sweet spot could be a deal centered on Lugo and struggling Cubs outfield prospect Kevin Alcántara. The Cubs would have to include a strong second piece, though, sources said, and that could turn out to be a problem.
Alcántara is also a consensus top 100 prospect from before the season, but has put up underwhelming numbers so far this year, hitting .264/.346/.448 with nine homers and nine steals in 66 games at Triple-A. He is a toolsy right-handed hitter that MLB Pipeline writes has “30-homer upside” along with good speed that could play well at Kauffman Stadium. But he has trouble with plate discipline with a 30 percent strikeout rate this year.
The Cubs had one of the top-ranked farm systems in baseball before the season, but Trueblood notes that “several of their key prospects are having rough seasons or are functionally untradeable.”
Lugo is 5-5 with a 2.74 ERA in 15 starts this year, and was a runner-up in Cy Young voting last year. He has a $15 million player option that he is very likely to decline at the end of the year.
Last week, Picollo seemed to play down the idea of being sellers.
“If we’re within striking distance – and I don’t know what that record would be because .500 seems to be a playoff record right now – I don’t think we should panic and say the season is over.”
But after another week of losing, perhaps the equation has changed. Lugo should be one of the most coveted starting pitchers if he becomes available, with a market that could include Sandy Alcántara and Edward Cabrera of the Marlins, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks, Zach Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano of the Orioles, and Mitch Keller and Andrew Heaney of the Pirates.
The next few weeks will determine whether the Royals stay the course or cash in on valuable trade chips like Lugo. With a deep Cubs farm system and several contenders circling, the Royals have an opportunity to build for the future, if they’re willing to face reality.