Scouting report: Bailey Falter

A breakout year and a reunion with an old coach make for a great late-rotation starter

Just before the end of the trade deadline, the Royals made a final trade with the Pirates to acquire starting pitcher Bailey Falter. The 28-year-old southpaw is having the best season of his career, posting a 3.73 ERA over 113.1 innings in 22 games, and could be a big pickup for the Royals down the stretch.

Bailey Falter was a top high school pitcher at Chino Hills High School, where he went to school with several top basketball players, including Lonzo and Lamelo Ball. In 2015, he was selected in the fifth round by the Phillies, and he spent the first seven years of his career in their organization. It was here that he worked with (now Royals pitching coach) Brian Sweeney, a relationship that likely played a significant role in the Royals making an aggressive last-minute trade for him.

When Falter was called up, he was known as a true strike-thrower, with an over-the-top delivery and great extension off the mound. Falter’s calling card was his long delivery and deception from the mound to make hitters uncomfortable in the box. He never really blew scouts away with his spin or his power on the mound, but the extension allows all of his offerings to play better than the metrics would suggest.

Falter started his career with a two-seam fastball as his primary pitch, with over 60% usage when he first appeared in the major leagues. His over-the-top delivery limited the horizontal movement on the pitch that you may expect, but he made up for it with great carry and a unique delivery. His primary second offering is a slider that will not catch many eyes for its spin, but plays well off the fastball. Falter also has a spiked curveball grip, a circle changeup grip, and a four-seam fastball, but they were rarely used when he first got to the majors.

As his professional career has gone on, Falter has stuck with his awkward delivery and continued to rely on his extension to get outs. Between his time with the Phillies and the Pirates, most of the focus has been on the pitch mix and adjusting his grips, something that will be interesting to monitor as his career continues in Kansas City.

Over the last several years, Falter has greatly increased the usage of his four-seam fastball, looking to get even more carry through the zone. He has also tinkered with the use of his curveball and slider, trying to find a good balance on the usage of his breaking balls that don’t have as much movement as you would hope.

Developing an effective off-speed pitch has appeared to be the biggest challenge of his career so far. Falter started with a circle changeup grip, but it got hammered in 2022, and he started experimenting with a new split-finger offering. He completely abandoned the changeup in 2024, and this year has thrown the splitter for 8% of his offerings.

The next steps for Falter are hard to know, but getting some consistency with his split-finger/offspeed pitch is likely priority one. He will look to stick in the rotation, and with his high-quality fastball(s), a quality off-speed pitch would be a game-changer.

Also, trying to get a different movement profile between on two-seam fastball compared to the four-seam fastball could help force more soft contact going forward. Falter has a quality pitch mix, but finding more consistency in location and movement will be what makes him even more successful in Kansas City.

Right now, Falter brings starting experience to a beat-up Royals rotation in desperate need of depth. He is not the type of guy you can expect to come up and dominate hitters with tons of velocity and spin, and while the underlying metrics may not look great, he’s effective. At the end of the day, that is what matters in the major leagues, and this year, Falter has been able to get the job done.

Falter will likely take the Royals’ fifth starter spot the second he arrives in Kansas City, a role he has been effective in for the Pirates this year. He is also reunited with his old minor league pitching coach in Brian Sweeney, someone who helped him move through the Phillies organization and into the majors. Falter is having the best year of his career and is under control through 2028. Now he will be in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball for 50% of his games with one of the best defenses in baseball behind him.