Is this the most important series of the year?
The Royals are back to .500 and head to Boston before they have nine games in a row against teams with a losing record. The Red Sox are red hot right now, winning 20 of 27, the best record in the American League since the end of June (the Royals have the third-best record at 17-10). They’re coming off a home sweep of the Astros, and their 37-21 home record is fifth-best in baseball.
Kansas City Royals (56-56) vs. Boston Red Sox (62-51) at Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Royals: 3.67 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 3.77 runs allowed/game (2nd)
Red Sox: 4.96 runs scored/game (5th), 4.27 runs allowed/game (15th)
The Red Sox have hit well this year, but have a gaping hole at first base that went unaddressed at the trade deadline, angering fans. Boston first basemen have combined to hit just .241/.302/.399 this year, with Triston Casas going down early in May with a season-ending knee injury.
The Red Sox also held onto outfielder Jarren Duran, despite trade rumors. He has been on fire this month, hitting .301/.398/.667 with six home runs in 26 games since June 30. Duran is hitting just .200/.241/.320 against lefties. Trevor Story has missed much of the last two seasons with injuries, but he has begun to heat up this summer, batting .315/.356/.581 with eight home runs in his last 36 games. He has the eighth-highest strikeout rate at 28.5 percent.
Boston has been helped by a great start by rookie Roman Anthony. He has the fourth-best on-base percentage for any player with at least 190 plate appearances. Romy Gonzalez is hitting .323/.355/.606 at home this year. Ceddanne Rafaela has the second-highest swing rate in baseball at 59.6 percent. Wilyer Abreu homered twice on July 20 against the Cubs, but is just 5-for-33 (.152) since then.
The Red Sox can swipe some bases with 95 steals, and they should reach 100+ steals for the third consecutive season, the first time that has happened in Boston since 1919. Rafaela spends some time at second, but he has been one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball this year. Carlos Narváez has allowed 62 stolen bases, third-most in baseball, with a 28 percent caught stealing rate.
Both teams will be getting debuts from new pitching acquisitions this series. The Royals start Bailey Falter, who began this year with the Pirates. He faces Brayan Bello, who has not given up more than three earned runs in a start since May 18 with a 2.86 ERA over his last 13 starts. Bello relies heavily on a sinker/sweeper combo, occasionally mixing in a four-seamer and changeup for a groundball rate of 50 percent.
Ryan Bergert will make his Royals debut on Tuesday, with a tough assignment in Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet. Crochet has the third-lowest ERA and FIP in baseball, the third-best strikeout rate at 31 percent, and the tenth-best groundball rate at 48 percent. He has a 1.62 ERA in 16 2⁄3 career innings against the Royals, although that includes six relief appearances. He gave up one run in seven innings in a win over the Royals back in May. He has fared slightly better against righties than lefties, although neither are hitting well against him. He has one of the best fastballs for a starter, clocking in at 96 mph, with a whiff rate of 31.7 percent.
Dustin May will make his Boston debut after five and a half seasons with the Dodgers. He has battled injuries his whole career, but has made a career-high 18 starts this year. May has a 5.95 ERA over his last seven starts. Lefties are hitting .253/.346/.472 against him this season. He throws a sweeper 41 percent of the time with a 28 percent whiff rate, and opponents are hitting just .111 against his 95 mph four-seamer.
Red Sox relievers have a 3.28 ERA, second-best in baseball, but they have the second-most blown saves. Former Royals pitcher Aroldis Chapman has the second-lowest ERA and FIP among qualified relievers, with a strikeout rate of 38.8 percent, tops among relievers. He has converted 20 of 22 save opportunities, but his setup man, Greg Weissert, has six blown saves already. Jorge Alcalá has a 1.69 ERA in 18 games since joining the Red Sox. Lefties are hitting .125/.206/.143 against Justin Wilson.
Boston is a hot team playing well, but so were the Toronto Blue Jays when the Royals took two out of three on the road. The Red Sox took two of three from the Royals in Kansas City back in May, but the Royals have a chance to extract some revenge and vault their playoff chances.