Let him play!
Over the weekend, Royals speedster and superutility man Tyler Tolbert went on bereavement leave. To take the open active roster spot, Kansas City recalled Nick Loftin from Triple-A Omaha. This move generally went under the radar, as Loftin hasn’t appeared in a game and Tolbert’s role meant that he sometimes didn’t appear for big chunks of a week.
It turns out that Loftin never appeared in a game, as today Tolbert came off the bereavement list and swapped roster spots with Loftin, who went back to Omaha.
I think this is a missed opportunity. Loftin should get some run soon.
When the season kicked off, Loftin didn’t make the cut, and at the time it made sense. Dairon Blanco was a better baserunner. MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe had relative competency with the bat in the big leagues somewhat recently. Cavan Biggio was a walks machine. Mark Canha provided a reliable veteran plate appearance. Maikel Garcia and Michael Massey had warts but had shown serious flashes of talent. Kyle Isbel was a reliable defender and a decent enough bat.
Since then, Kansas City’s offense has crumbled like a fine blue cheese. While Canha, Garcia, and Biggio have largely played at or above expectations, everyone else didn’t. Melendez was terrible before being sent to Omaha. Renfroe has been awful and his proverbial seat is getting hotter and hotter. Isbel’s meager offense has fallen off a cliff. And Massey perhaps has been the most disappointing, being tied for least productive position player in Major League Baseball. Combine it with slumps from Vinnie Pasquantino and Jonathan India and, well, it’s been bad bad.
That is the one major change in the equation from the beginning of the year. The other major change in the equation is that Loftin has been sensational as a Storm Chaser. In 103 Triple-A plate appearances, Loftin walked 25.% of the time—while only striking out 10.7% of the time. He’s hitting north of .300 and has posted a wRC+ of 164 while logging time at four defensive positions.
The only problem with Loftin is that his player archetype is what I like to call “Short Plate Discipline King.” A SPDK is a player who stands under 6 feet tall, weighs less than 200 lbs, and whose main calling card is excellent plate discipline, either in the form of drawing walks or avoiding strikeouts or both. These players often rocket through the minors posting absurd K/BB ratios while playing key defensive positions like shortstop or as a superutility player.
Now, there is a downside of the SPDK. When an SPDK gets to the big leagues, pitchers are more aggressive and have nastier stuff to defuse an SPDK’s greatest strength while exposing them to the harsh light of reality. While the great SPDKs still get on base with walks or avoid strikeouts, the result is that most post an isolated slugging percentage of .100 or less.
To help you visualize what a Short Plate Discipline King looks like, here are some that have posted a season or a stretch of seasons with a max ISO of .100 and either a strikeout rate under 10% or a walk rate over 10% in the last decade:
- Jarrod Dyson, 5’9” / 165
- Nori Aoki, 5’9” / 180
- Luis Arraez, 5’10” / 175
- Willians Astudillo, 5’9” / 225
- Nicky Lopez, 5’10” / 185
- Nick Madrigal, 5’7” / 175
Loftin is a little taller at a listed 6 feet, but at 180 lbs he fits right in with this group (sans Astudillo, who feels like a fever dream and I am so glad to see him play). But you’ll notice that the ceiling for this type of player just isn’t very high. Yes, Arraez is a three-time All-Star, but the year he posted an ISO under .100 he only accrued 1.1 Wins Above Replacement per Fangraphs.
So when Loftin didn’t make the initial roster cut, it was easy to see what the Royals could also see: that the route forward for a SPDK is very narrow. At some point, pitchers will just throw fastballs at you and dare you to do damage. If you can’t, there’s very little reason for pitchers to throw outside of the zone and even give you the option to take a walk.
But, again, the Royals are in such a spot right now that they don’t need high ceiling players right now. They need basic competency, which is something that a large swath of their roster isn’t offering. Can Loftin provide basic competency? It’s worth a shot. And if he can do damage and ascend past the SPDK archetype, well, that would do the Royals good. Bobby Witt Jr. is too good not to have a supporting cast that supports him during the prime of his career.