Kris Bubic’s transformation into an All-Star

Kris Bubic has taken a bit of an unusual path, but it has ended with the Royals having a legit All-Star pitcher

Kris Bubic was selected as the 40th overall pick in 2018. He does not throw particularly hard, nor have his strikeout rates ever been eye popping. And yet, Bubic is at the All-Star Game, to be played tonight. I’m not sure very many people who were not paying extremely close attention to the Royals could have seen this coming even a couple of months ago.

Kris was a Stanford Cardinal who pitched his last two seasons as a fixture in their rotation. The lefty managed sub-3 ERAs in both his sophomore and junior campaigns while having a K/BB above 3. That is how you end up a supplemental pick like he did in 2018. He made it to the big leagues much faster than you would expect because the Royals rotation was bad and there were no minor leagues in 2020. He and Brady Singer were both moved up before they had much minor league experience at all, and neither fell on their face, which seemed like a good sign.

The period from 2020 to 2022 saw Kris as a fringy 5th starter type with ERAs in the mid-four to five range and strikeout rates that put him in the bottom quartile of modern starters. Then the Royals front office changed and some new pitching development people took over. Spring training in 2023 saw Bubic looking like a very different beast. He struck out over 13 per 9 and had a 1.74 in spring (super small sample size warning). Then he had two very promising starts that made it look like he was what we all hoped. People were getting excited. The big change was that before he was fastball, curveball, and change. He had added a slider and increased his strikeout rate.

And then he blew out his elbow the next start and we didn’t see him again in Kansas City until July of 2024. He came back last season and became a weapon out of the bullpen. Across 30.1 regular season innings and four playoff appearances, he was very good and his Stuff+ numbers showed more velocity and movement. I heard a lot of people in this offseason saying he should stay in the pen because he had found a home. He moved back to the rotation this season and kept most of the velocity increase, his fastball is averaging 92.3 versus 93.0 last season as a reliever.

The move back to the rotation has been nothing short of a revelation. In 18 starts he has a 2.48 ERA and peripherals to back it up with a 2.74 FIP and 3.07 xERA. His eleven quality starts is tied for 9th in the AL and his ERA is 6th among qualified starters. He’s 3rd in the league in fWAR. This is not just an All-Star birth or a breakout for Kris, he is going to get Cy Young votes if he can keep it going for another 10 to 15 starts.

He isn’t doing this by having the biggest, scariest pitches. Stuff+ scores his stuff at 6% below league average, 94 indexed to 100 as average. But his other two scores, location+ and pitching+, are 105 (7th AL starters) and 102 (17th). He is getting the most out of his arsenal with above-average command and being smart about pitching. As he approaches his 28th birthday and his last year of arbitration, Kris Bubic seems to have put everything together in a way that is going to serve him very well, either in the way of an extension or on the open market.

With the Royals in the midst of an uneven and sometimes frustrating season, take a step back during the All-Star break here in a few days to really appreciate the players that have stepped up to try and push the team forward. Near the top of that list needs to be Kris Bubic, a crafty lefty having a tremendous year.