The Royals handled most of their arbitration business quietly and efficiently. The two cases they did not resolve say more about the organization than the six they did. Vinnie Pasquantino and Kris Bubic remain unsigned, and the path to this moment exposes a growing gap between roster control and relational trust. Arbitration is procedural by design, but how a team navigates it reveals priorities.
How the Royals Reached This Point
On January 8, Major League Baseball’s arbitration deadline arrived, requiring teams and players to exchange salary figures if no agreement had been reached. According to MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers, Kansas City settled one-year contracts with Michael Massey, Kyle Isbel, Bailey Falter, Daniel Lynch IV, John Schreiber, and Nick Mears before the deadline. Pasquantino and Bubic were the only two arbitration-eligible Royals left without agreements, placing both on track for arbitration hearings if no late settlements occur.
Rogers also noted an important organizational tendency. The Royals historically do not settle once arbitration figures are exchanged. That context matters because it suggests that unresolved cases are often intentional rather than accidental. Missing the deadline is usually a signal that a club is willing to accept the hearing process rather than compromise at the last minute.
Vinnie Pasquantino and the Silence Around an Extension
Vinnie Pasquantino is entering his first year of arbitration, a phase where many organizations prioritize smooth resolutions to reinforce long-term alignment. Instead, his case stalled, and the backdrop became public.
In a recent appearance on the Foul Territory podcast, Pasquantino stated that the Royals have not spoken to him about an extension in recent years. He framed the situation pragmatically, explaining that extension talks are driven by performance and that it is his responsibility to play well enough to warrant those discussions. The comments were calm, measured, and revealing. Vinnie also states on Foul Territory that he’s in a kinda funny spot because he’s grooming his replacement (Jac Caglianone).
“To an extent, but not really.”@VPasquantino says the Royals haven’t discussed an extension with him in a few years. pic.twitter.com/oVV0j3YVk0
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) January 5, 2026
Pasquantino also offered a subtle but telling signal on social media. He briefly reposted Milwaukee catcher William Contreras’ X post, which simply read “Wow,” followed by emojis, a reaction widely interpreted as frustration with the gap between what Contreras sought in arbitration and what his club was willing to offer. The repost was removed shortly after. Pasquantino added no commentary of his own, but players rarely amplify those messages accidentally, even briefly. Whether it was empathy, frustration, or second thoughts, the moment reinforces a pattern. Pasquantino is aware of the business side, the leverage, and where conversations have stalled. In arbitration, silence speaks, and timing speaks louder.
Wow🥴🫨
— William Contreras (@Wcontreras42) January 9, 2026
From a front-office standpoint, this approach is defensible. From a cultural standpoint, it is risky. Arbitration hearings are adversarial by design. When they involve players positioned as long-term pillars, the fallout often outlasts the process itself.
Kris Bubic and the End-of-Control Reality
Kris Bubic presents a different challenge entirely. He is entering his final year of team control before free agency, which reframes the entire arbitration discussion.
According to MLB.com arbitration and roster-control reporting, Bubic’s situation is less about long-term alignment and more about asset clarity. With only one season remaining before free agency, teams are often more willing to accept the relational cost of arbitration, especially if the player may be moved or allowed to walk.
That reality forces a clear decision tree. Either Bubic is part of the Royals’ competitive rotation and worth preserving trust with, or he is an asset whose value lies in innings pitched and potential trade return. Allowing his case to move toward a hearing suggests the organization is prepared to accept short-term friction for long-term flexibility.
How the Projections Shape the Royals’ Thinking
When projections flatten and upside feels capped, organizations often pivot quietly. Arbitration becomes less about reward and more about risk containment. That possibility cannot be ignored here. The Royals may not be questioning the usefulness of Pasquantino or Bubic going forward. They may be questioning whether either project is far enough beyond league average to justify early commitment.
Public projection systems such as FanGraphs, ZiPS, and Steamer show Pasquantino projecting as a solid but not elite offensive first baseman in 2026 and beyond. League-average first basemen typically post an OPS north of .780. Pasquantino’s projected output trends closer to that average than to the upper tier of the position, which narrows the margin for long-term financial bets at a bat-first spot.
Bubic’s projections follow a similar pattern. League-average starting pitchers now hover around a 3.50 – 4.00 ERA. Bubic’s forward-looking projections place him near that baseline rather than clearly above it with a 3.80 ERA. For a front office managing payroll discipline and rotation volatility, that profile often shifts a pitcher from long-term building block to short-term asset.
What This Says About the Royals’ Internal Standard
This situation did not emerge overnight. It reflects a front office that prioritizes procedural discipline and cost control, sometimes at the expense of proactive communication. That approach can function during rebuilds. It becomes more complicated as a club transitions toward sustained competitiveness.
You cannot consistently promote culture, leadership, and accountability while allowing distance to form during moments of leverage. Arbitration is where alignment is tested. Teams that believe in players long-term usually act before deadlines force confrontation.
The Royals now face two decisions that go beyond salary figures. Pasquantino represents future identity. Bubic represents present utility and near-term value. How Kansas City resolves these cases will be noticed not only by those players but by the next wave watching how the organization treats its own.
What Arbitration Reveals About Kansas City’s Direction
The Royals do not have an arbitration problem. They have a clarity problem. Arbitration exposes truth. Right now, it shows a club still deciding whether it wants to lead through long-term alignment or short-term administration. How Kansas City resolves Pasquantino and Bubic will quietly define that answer.
Top Image Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports