The odds are going, going…..
June has ended with the Royals winning just 8 out of 26 games. They have plummeted to seven games below .500, scoring just 3.27 runs per game. It was not fun to watch, as many of you already know. This team had hopes to make the postseason, and going into June they were still burning fairly bright. Now it has dimmed to the point where only the most optimistic fan could believe for a number of reasons.
Right now, the Seattle Mariners are in the last wildcard spot, on pace for 85 wins if you round them up a couple of decimal points. For the Royals to get to 85 wins, they would have to go 46-31 the rest of the way for a .597 win percentage. On top of that, 85 probably won’t get it done. The Angels, Red Sox, Guardians, Rangers, and Twins are all between Kansas City and Seattle. Maybe none of them can get hot, or maybe a couple of teams – the Blue Jays, Rays, or one of the division leaders – falls below the 85 mark to even make that the goal. We should assume the Royals are going to need to go at least 20 games over .500 the rest of the way or so. That just seems impossible the way this team is hitting.
All of the playoff odds systems agree that the hill to climb is large, though not completely insurmountable. Fangraphs is the most optimistic at a scant 8%. Odds of one in 12.5 is not what you want. Baseball Reference has playoff odds of 5.9% for the Royals and Baseball Prospectus is the at the low end with 3.4%. Regardless of your preference of calculating such things, the odds are very bad.
The proverbial fat lady has not yet sung. She has probably been in Colorado, but I assume she is booking a flight to Kansas City for a visit in July. I just do not see the path for this team to get back anywhere near a 90-win season. The pitching has been more than good enough, but when you only have three everyday players hitting over league average, there just can’t be enough runs scored. Could Salvador Perez and Jac Caglianone and Jonathan India all turn it around in July? Maybe. I am not sure it would be enough.
And so, it is time to start thinking about the trade deadline from a selling perspective. We should all assume that Seth Lugo will be on another team by the end of this month. Kris Bubic, with only a year and a half left to free agency, could be as well, along with Carlos Estévez and maybe one or two others. On the hitting side, I doubt the Royals will make any trades unless something very tantalizing pulls away a Maikel Garcia or something, but that would need to be a premium prospect or two.
This is not all a bad thing. The farm system needs some bolstering. I went on a depressing march through Omaha, Northwest Arkansas, and Quad Cities’ stats this morning, and couldn’t bring myself to write up how lousy a year it has been in the minor leagues with only a few exceptions. I wish I had some good news, but it is hard to think positively about the Royals at the moment. Hopefully, there is another Cole Ragans-style win in the trade market in the next few weeks so that the Royals can start setting up for 2026 and 2027.