It’s refreshing to see a Royals hitter show such good strike zone judgment
The Kansas City Royals offense came alive in their 8-2 win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday; they scored their magic number of runs two times in one game! The Royals didn’t hit that particularly well with runners in scoring position either. They went 4-19 with RISP and had 13 LOB. They just gave themselves so many chances to score, they were bound to drive a few of the runs in, and they kept the pressure on the Rays all day.
One of the at-bats in the sixth inning that kept the rally going was from Jonathan India, and is a perfect illustration of what I’ve come to really appreciate about India. Let’s break down the at-bat:
The at-bat came against Shane Baz, a highly regarded young pitcher who seems to finally be healthy and living up to the promise everyone saw in him. He came into the start against the Royals with a 2.45 ERA and a 2.44 xERA. By the time India came to the plate, the Royals had already tagged Baz for four runs, and had two on with two out in the sixth. This was the first pitch India saw from Baz:
That is outside the strike zone and is the kind of pitch that drives people who want a full robot strike zone and they want it now completely crazy. India might be one of those people as he immediately turns towards the umpire and let’s him know that he disagrees with the call. That pitch is sometimes going to be called a strike, particularly if it’s well located and well framed like it was there, so now India is behind in the count.
The Royals left fielder? third baseman? second baseman if Michael Massey can’t figure it out? leadoff hitter then took a ball in the dirt before fouling a slider off, putting him down 1-2 in the count. Then Baz threw another fastball just off the plate:
It takes some stones to spit on that pitch, particularly after you already had an outside fastball called a strike earlier in the at-bat. Baz clearly thinks he had earned a punchout from the umpire. If India had struck out, you can just hear Rex Hudler saying on the broadcast “That’s too close to take, gotta shorten your swing up and poke that the other way, knock one in.” There is some wisdom in trying to fight off tough pitches, but India knows that pitch is a ball, and he’s unlikely going to be able to get a good cut against a 98mph fastball in that spot. To have the eye and discipline to sit on that pitch is remarkable. We’ve seen plenty of good players wave at that pitch and strike out, and even more not so good players do that as well. India kept himself alive in the plate appearance to see the next pitch from Baz:
That is really impressive pitch recognition to be able to see that pitch as a slider and lay off it after just seeing the fastball in a similar location. I love Salvador Perez, but he’s swinging at that slider 99 times out of 100. Baz is pitching smartly here, but India’s awareness of the strike zone is even better, and that skill forces a 3-2 count.
Baz misses inside on the 3-2 pitch to India, which India takes and draws a walk, loading the bases. Some walks are free passes, but this walk by India was earned. Here’s an image from Baseball Savant showing it all, including how close to the strike zone that 1-2 fastball was:
Rays manager Kevin Cash replaced Baz with Eric Orze, who proceeds to hit Bobby Witt Jr. with a changeup on his first pitch, scoring a run. Vinnie Pasquantino then slaps a single to left field which drives in two runs, including a hustling India, which puts the Royals up six runs. This is a lead so big that not even Chris Stratton coming in during the ninth inning had me worried about the outcome of the game. None of that happens without India keeping the inning alive with some really impressive strike zone awareness and swing decisions.
India is still hitting below average for the season. On the whole, India has struggled with the quality of his contact; he’s hitting .216 with a .279 wOBA. His xBA of .262 and xWOBA of .338 are encouraging signs that he’s on the right track and is due for more patience. He’s also started to improve ever since famed hitting guru David Lesky noticed that India was standing up further in the box this season than he had in previous seasons, and India has subsequently moved back to where he stood previously.
As longtime Royals fans are well aware, we’ve been starved of hitters with top-notch strike zone awareness and swing decisions, so watching India work the count is delightful. His at-bats are quickly becoming some of my favorite to watch. It’s just really nice watching hitters take tough pitches, instead of shooting off fireworks when players finally manage to talk a walk.
The Royals brought India in to solve their leadoff hitter problem, and while a 77 wRC+ isn’t a good solution, India’s current .333 OBP is already significantly higher than the .270 OBP the Royals got from leadoff hitters last season. I think we have reason to think the hits will start falling for India, and we will continue to see great at-bats from India like we saw on Thursday. If that is the case, then we are going to continue to see Witt Jr. come to the plate much more frequently with runners on than we did last year, which can only help the Royals offense.