Drew Waters has come in and been reasonably productive in an outfield that desperately needed it. Can he continue being an answer for the Kansas City Royals?
The defining story of the Royals season so far is the dearth of production from the lineup, and the outfield in particular. Luckily, the pitching has been good enough to keep that from tanking the season, but answers are still needed to get more consistent offense. One of the only answers so far has been Drew Waters. He stepped into the spot once occupied by MJ Melendez, and with very small shoes to fill, has done an admirable job of providing some positive value over the last month.
From a top-line perspective, his numbers are quite pedestrian. Drew is hitting .271/.314/.385 for a 94 wRC+, so just a touch below league average at the plate while providing averageish defense. If he continued this pace, he would be on about a 1.5 win pace by Fangraphs’ reckoning, almost a 3 win pace according to Baseball Reference who likes both his offense and defense just a little better. Those are totals that will not set the world on fire, but having a regular outfielder in that range is perfectly acceptable.
What’s interesting is that the shape of production for Waters is very different from the last time he had success at the major league level. In 2022 he put up a solid 123 wRC+ for the Royals over 32 games, about the same amount of time as he has had this year. Most of that was driven by power as he had five home runs, six doubles, and a triple in 109 plate appearances.
This time, he is hitting for a better average but without the power only producing 7 extra base hits in 102 PAs. The good sign is the strikeout rate, which has been a problem holding back Drew’s development, which is 23.5% so far, his first time below 30% for any stretch in the majors. Does he have to give up power to get there and does that limit how good he could be?
Baseball Savant
Waters’ Baseball Savant page is not super comforting if you want to believe what he is doing is going to continue to be positive. That is all bad except for hitting it on the sweet spot. He chases too much, whiffs too much, and doesn’t hit the ball hard off the barrel. I’m not sure if you can have sustained success with an average exit velocity of 85.6 mph, which is Nicky Lopez territory. Stephen Kwan and Luis Arraez manage it, but they are the most extreme contact hitters in modern baseball. Drew Waters is not.
Add to that a .352 BABIP, and I am assuming this is going to fall apart any day. Maybe it already has. His production so far is evenly split across April and May, where he has 61 and 41 plate appearances, respectively. He hit well in April with a 117 wRC+, but so far in May he has hit very poorly with a wRC+ of 60. This month he is making more soft contact and has just one double for extra base hits. Unless something changes drastically, and soon, he looks like he may become more of a problem than a solution, although still better than trotting out Hunter Renfroe.
And now we are back to the same problem I feel like Royals commentators and fans alike have been rehashing for weeks. The lineup is bad, and the internal solutions are non-existent. Nick Loftin should get a shot for sure. But can he play the outfield well enough? He has only been in left field for 16 innings so far for Omaha. Caglianone now has five starts in right field to 26 at first base. I think jumping a guy from AA to the majors and putting him in a position he has five career games played at would be criminally negligent, so he is out, for at least now. I guess John Rave would be the next actual outfielder who might deserve a shot, but when a guy is not selected in the Rule 5 by any of the other 29 teams and is also a low exit velocity sort, what’s the upside there?
If you want to know why the team has not yet cut Hunter Renfroe, I think I just summed it up. Renfroe looks like he is truly done as a productive major leaguer, so whether they cut him or not does not concern me, as it feels more like a “when” than an “if”.
The problem is that there are not enough alternate options, which is why Johnathan India has been stuck out in left more than I would like. I started this article hoping to have something positive and all I got was that Waters isn’t striking out a ton. Mostly, I feel like the trade deadline can’t get here fast enough and I hope Baltimore keeps losing so we can get a Cedric Mullins rental soon. Sorry if this didn’t cheer you up either, but remember, despite the flaws, this team is still winning more than it is losing which will buy time to find solutions.