Will the Royals move on from Hunter Renfroe soon? They did when Hunter Dozier was in a similar situation.
The Kansas City Royals offense looked good yesterday against the Chicago White Sox, scoring 10 runs on 17 hits. Almost all of the starters reached base once, and 7 of the 9 hitters had a multi-hit game. The only player who did not manage to get a hit was right fielder Hunter Renfroe, which is an apt illustration for how things have been going for him this season.
Renfroe continues to look lost at the plate. He’s hitting .152/.218/.290, good for a .193 wOBA and a 13 wRC+. The only “good” thing you can say about Renfroe this season is that he hasn’t hit as poorly as MJ Melendez did, but with Melendez now in Triple-A and the offense continuing to need improvement, Renfroe is the next obvious candidate to be replaced in the lineup.
The right fielder, however, is not as simple to replace as Melendez. The Royals were able to send Melendez down to Triple-A, which keeps him in the system and gives him a chance to figure out his new swing. If you walk on Renfroe, however, you have to cut him and you still have to pay him. Renfroe is due $7.5 million this season; quick math tells us that the Royals still owe him around $5.6 million for the year. While it’s easy for us to spend John Sherman’s money and tell the Royals to send Renfroe packing, it’s generally harder for front offices to do that, especially if they were the ones to sign him.
The Royals, specifically this front office and ownership group, have made a similar choice in the past with a struggling veteran. On May 22nd, 2023, the Royals designated Hunter Dozier for assignment. Dozier was hitting .185/.253/.305 at the time, which only put him 53% below league average compared to Renfroe’s current 87% below league average mark. The Royals also owed Dozier more money when they cut him than they currently owe to Renfroe. Like Renfroe, Dozier was owed a total of $7.5 million the year the Royals parted ways with him. But Dozier was also owed $9.25 million in 2024 and received another $1 million in the form of a buyout this season.
Overall, the Royals owed Dozier around $15 million when he was cut compared to $5.6 million they currently owe Renfroe. This suggests that the money owed shouldn’t necessarily be an issue for this ownership group to sign off on releasing a player. Renfroe is fast approaching what I’m going to call the Dozier line, which is 91 plate appearances. Dozier appeared in 29 games and had 91 plate appearances before the Royals had seen enough. Renfroe is currently at 28 games played and 87 plate appearances. If previous history is any indication, the Royals should have a big enough sample size here now or very soon to make a call on Renfroe’s status with the team.
Is there anything in Renfroe’s statistical profile that tells us that he’s just suffering from poor batted ball variance or is due for a breakout? His ability to judge the strike zone looks about the same; his BB% and K% are in line with his career averages, as are his swing percentages and contact percentages.
The quality of the contact once he makes it, however, tells us that something does seem to be really wrong. All of his Statcast batting metrics (average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard hit percentage, etc.) are down compared to last year. His xBA is in the 1st percentile of all hitters and even more disturbingly, his xSLG is in the 2nd percentile. Renfroe is an aging and declining player, but last year he still had a good arm in right field and was able to hit for just enough power to be a replacement level player. If the power is gone, he’s basically got nothing left at the plate.
The outfielder did get off to a slow start last season, posting a 32 wRC+ in April. While that is pretty terrible, it is still a lot better than his current mark of 13. He also started to show signs of life in May with a 85 wRC+ before going on to have a pretty excellent June and July. So if the Royals do decide to keep him a little longer, they may be hoping he can repeat last season and give them something in the summer after a rough start.
Personally, I’ve seen enough of Renfroe and am ready to give Nick Loftin a chance in the lineup. Loftin has a not nice 69 wRC+ in the majors, but he’s only had 239 plate appearances across two seasons, which isn’t a huge chance to prove yourself. Loftin has also looked excellent in Omaha this year, sporting a .297/.443/.485 line, which is 52% above league average for Triple-A. He’s also shown remarkable plate discipline, drawing 27 walks compared to only 16 strikeouts so far.
Loftin in the outfield would likely mean Drew Waters settles in at right field most of the time and Loftin in left field, if previous patterns in the majors continue. Loftin, however, can also play second base, which has the added benefit of putting some pressure on Michael Massey to produce. If Renfroe does end up leaving the team sooner rather than later, that puts Massey in the position as the next most obvious candidate that needs to improve or be replaced. Even after the 10 run outburst yesterday, the Royals are only 23rd in MLB in runs scored, leaving plenty of room for growth.
I do feel a bit for Renfroe; he looks like a player on the wrong end of the aging curve right now. He can still do some things well, like a judge if he should swing at a pitch or not, but the bat speed is slower, his barrel rate is down, and he just isn’t hitting the ball hard anymore. He was already a replacement level player last year, so even just a small drop in his ability to swing the bat hard and make contact is leading to disastrous results this season. The outfielder just doesn’t seem to be able to get his body to do what is used to be able to do, which is a frustrating experience.
Time marches on for all of us, and the Royals have a decision to make with Renfore. Their history with Dozier and the fact that they have a player in Loftin performing well in the minors tells us that a decision to move on should be coming soon.