I’ve talked myself into Noah Cameron being a left-handed version of Seth Lugo
Among the Kansas City Royals fans that I have talked to and media people that I have listened too, there has been a nearly universal understanding that Noah Cameron’s results to start the season weren’t reflective of the pitcher that he’s likely to become. The general sentiment was (and in plenty of cases still seems to be) “Cameron is pitching great, but we know he’s not this isn’t sustainable, he’s probably a back end of the rotation kind of starter.” I was part of this general sentiment. Multiple times I nearly wrote a “Noah Cameron can’t keep this up” article, but there wasn’t really anyone arguing that I interacted with that he could, so I put them aside.
There were plenty of reasons why this was the general consensus. Through his first 9 starts, Noah Cameron sported a sparkling 2.79 ERA, but his 4.18 FIP and his .197 BABIP suggested that the regression to the mean monster was coming. It’s just really hard to be a consistently successful pitcher and only strike out 38 batters in 51.2 innings.
The southpaw has looked better over his last four starts, all in the month of July. Cameron has a 2.22 ERA in the month, but this time he has a 2.97 FIP to back it up. 27 strikeouts in 24.1 innings is more aligned with his minor league strikeouts numbers, and Cameron issued only four walks this month. The rookie had a 10.42 K/9 in the minor leagues last season and a 10.47 K/9 in AAA this season. He has shown an ability to miss bats at a good clip, so getting closer to that strikeout number is a really encouraging sign of him figuring out how to pitch at the major league level.
Cameron continues to benefit from friendly sequencing (85.4 LOB%) and batted ball luck (.225 BABIP), so I don’t think his 2.61 ERA is completely reflective of the pitcher he’s been this year. These last four starts, however, have shown that Cameron is improving his peripherals, increasing the likelihood that he remains a quality starter even when the batted ball variance works against him.
I’m starting to believe that Cameron can become a left-handed version of Seth Lugo. First, he can consistently throw strikes with his entire arsenal. Cameron has shown remarkable control and command with his five pitches. His heat maps from Baseball Savant reveal that more often than not, Cameron is putting all of his pitches where he wants.
Fastball:
Cutter:
Changeup:
Slider:
Curveball:
Each one of those pitches normally ends up where he wants it too, showing strong command of all five pitches. His slider and changeup locations in particular are impressive; those are tough pitches for hitters to deal with when they are that well located.
Cameron also uses all five pitches frequently. His four-seam fastball, which he throws the most out of any pitch, is only thrown 27.9% of the time. His curveball, the pitch that he throws the least amount, is still offered 17.5% of the time. Hitters legitimately might see any of his five pitches during their plate appearances and at any point in the count. The lefty’s release point for all of his pitches is very similar as well, making it more difficult for hitters to know what pitch they are going to see.
We’ve seen with Lugo that the ability to throw more pitches than normal for quality strikes is a weapon in a pitcher’s arsenal. It’s helped Lugo keep hitters guessing these past two seasons, which induces more soft contact than you would normally anticipate. It also lets Lugo go deeper into games, as he can mix up pitches hitters see across the game to help fight against them becoming familiar with his stuff.
The more I look at Cameron’s pitching data, the more I think his success in inducing soft contact is similar to Lugo’s. Granted, Lugo has thrown ten different pitches this season according to Baseball Savant, but five pitches that you throw consistently is still more than most pitchers have. I’m also going to guess that if Cameron has the feel for pitching to locate five pitches, picking up another pitch moving forward is more likely for him than it was for Brady Singer.
We also saw some grit out of Cameron in his last start against the Chicago Cubs. The rookie allowed two homers in the bottom of the second inning, but hung in the game and ended up pitching six innings. Cameron hasn’t had much run support this season, so it could have been easy for him to mentally spiral or give up on the game with the Royals down 4-1 in the bottom of the second. He recovered nicely, giving up zero runs the rest of his appearance and the Royals offense ended up coming through this time, rewarding him with a win.
I think Cameron is going to end up being a starter consistently worthy of a spot in a playoff rotation. His strikeout numbers in the minors show that he can generate swings and misses, and he’s showing signs of that in the majors. His ability to control and command five pitches will allow him to keep hitters guessing and induce more soft contact than your average starter. Cameron seems like a craftsman already, which makes me think he’s more likely to try to work on the art of pitching to get better and not just rest on his laurels. Finally, we saw an ability to bounce-back in game in his last start, which shows some mental toughness to stick with it.
If the July strikeout numbers are a blip, this will end up looking foolish, but I think the Royals have another high-quality starter on their hands. Hopefully, the emergence of Cameron will let the Royals trade from their pitching depth and improve their lineup, whether that’s before the trade deadline or in the offseason.