This is an important series for two AL Central teams on the bubble.
The Royals and Guardians face each other this weekend with both teams on the bubble of a post-season race. The Guadians are three games back of a Wild Card spot, while the Royals sit another 1.5 games behind them. Both teams are playing well as of late – the Guardians have won 11 of their last 14 to reach .500. But trade rumors are swirling around both teams, with teams targeting outfielder Steven Kwan, and relievers Cade Smith and Emmanuel Clase on the Guardians.
Cleveland Guardians (51-51) vs. Kansas City Royals (50-53) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Guardians: 3.85 runs scored/game (26th in MLB), 4.20 runs allowed/game (14th)
Royals: 3.52 runs scored/game (29th), 3.74 runs allowed/game (2nd)
Like the Royals, the Guardians have struggled offensively much of the year. They have been shut out 11 times this year, tied with the Royals for second-most in baseball. Guardians catchers are collectively hitting .160, the worst batting average for a team at catcher in a full season since Mariners catchers hit .159 in 2015.
Kyle Manzardo homered against the Royals on Opening Day, and is a career .265/.405/.588 hitter in 11 games against them. Ángel Martínez has begun to heat up, hitting .307/.341/.587 with four home runs in 20 games this month. Daniel Schneerman is a .272/.341/.544 hitter on the road.
Nolan Jones is mired in a 4-for-31 (.129) slump over his last nine games. Carlos Santana is a career 2-for-13 (.154) hitter against Michael Wacha. José Ramírez is a career .274/.352/.502 with 31 home runs in 170 games against the Royals. He is second in the American League with 31 steals.
The Guardians are an average defensive team with Carlos Santana still playing Gold Glove defense at first base. The outfield defense has been shakier with Martínez and Jones below average in Outs Above Average. Bo Naylor has allowed 54 steals, sixth-most in baseball, throwing out 25 percent of all attempts.
Gavin Williams has the highest walk rate in baseball among starters. He struck out a season-high 11 with just one walk and one run allowed in his last start against the Athletics and has a 2.79 ERA over his last nine starts. He allowed just two runs in five innings in a no-decision against the Royals back in March. Opponents are whiffing 42.6 percent of the time on his sweeper, hitting just .180 against it, and he boasts a 96 mph fastball.
Tanner Bibee has yet to allow a run in 10 1⁄3 innings against the Royals over two starts. He has been much better at home, posting a 5.37 ERA in 12 starts on the road. Bibee has the 11th-highest soft-hit rate in baseball. Vinnie Pasquantino is 7-for-11 (.636) with two home runs against him, while Salvy is hitless in 15 at-bats against him.
Joey Cantillo makes just his fifth start of the year after 20 relief appearances. He has a 4.08 ERA as a starter and has yet to go as long as six innings. He does not have a platoon split, with lefties hitting better than righties with a line of .254/.333/.441. Opponents whiff on his change up 48.6 percent of the time, but are hitting .319 against his 91 mph fastball.
The Guardians’ bullpen is not nearly as dominant as it was last year, with relievers combining for a 3.72 ERA. Emmanuel Clase is still among the best in the league, and is currently ninth among relievers in fWAR at 1.3 with 23 saves. He blew a save on Opening Day against the Royals, one of his four blown saves this year. Cade Smith has the 12th-highest strikeout rate at 34.4 percent. Kolby Allard has the lowest strikeout rate among all relievers at just 11 percent.
One of these teams likely needs to win the series decisively in a sweep to have any notions of staying in contention this summer. A mixed result probably means both teams will at least listen to trade offers for their MLB pieces.