Madison Bumgarner is not walking through that door
The Giants defeated the Royals in a thrilling Game 7 of the World Series in 2014, but have managed to make the playoffs just twice since then. They won a franchise record 107 games in 2021, but have not enjoyed a winning record since then. They finished 80-82 last year, which got club president Farhan Zaidi fired and replaced by former All-Star catcher Buster Posey.
This year, the Giants added big free agent Willy Adames at shortstop and re-signed slugger Matt Chapman. They got off to a hot start, winning eight of their first nine games. They went into a cold stretch last week, getting swept by the red-hot Twins, but bounced back this weekend with a sweep of the Athletics.
Kansas City Royals (26-22) vs. San Francisco Giants (28-19) at Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
Royals: 3.31 runs scored/game (28th in MLB), 3.33 runs allowed/game (2nd)
Giants: 4.72 runs scored/game (9th), 3.72 runs allowed/game (8th)
Giants hitters have the ninth-best walk rate, but the ninth-lowest batting average. They have the lowest ground ball rate and the second-lowest hard-hit rate. The team has enjoyed a great start from Jung-Hoo Lee, a free agent they signed from Korea a year ago who was hit with injuries last year. The “Grandson of Wind” has been the fourth-most valuable centerfielder in baseball, according to Fangraphs.
Matt Chapman has the seventh-highest walk rate in baseball at 15.7 percent. Jung-Hoo Lee has a strikeout rate of just 11.8 percent. Wilmer Flores is hitting .354/.414/.570 at home this year and leads the league with 42 RBI overall. He is 7-for-14 with three home runs in his career against Royals starter Michael Lorenzen.
Heliot Ramos is hitting .409/.481/.697 with five home runs over his last 19 games. Tyler Fitzgerald is hitting .345/.424/.552 against lefties. Mike Yastrzemski is 12th in the National League in on-base percentage at .379. Adames has gotten off to a disappointing start after signing a seven-year, $182 million deal last winter. LaMonte Wade Jr. got off to a dreadful 6-for-64 (.094) start to the season.
Only six teams have stolen fewer bases than the Giants. and they have the worst success rate in baseball at 69 percent. Third baseman Matt Chapman and catcher Patrick Bailey were both Gold Glove Award winners last year. Bailey is the best pitch-framer in baseball and a very good pitch blocker, and has thrown out 40 percent of would-be basestealers.
Kris Bubic, who pitched in college at nearby Stanford, will make the third start of his career in San Francisco, looking for his first win despite a 2.38 ERA. Robbie Ray leads the National League in wins (6) and walks (26) after missing most of the last two seasons with injury. He leads all of baseball in walk rate, but is 18th in strikeout rate. He struck out a season-high nine batters in six innings in his last start against Arizona, and has gone six innings or more in his last four outings. Ray throws a 94 mph seamer that opponents are hitting just .190 against, as well as a slider, change up, and knuckle curve.
Hayden Birdsong will make his first start of the season after serving in the bullpen, replacing disappointing starter Jordan Hicks. Birdsong gave up three runs with two home runs and two walks in a three-inning relief outing in his last appearance on Wednesday against Arizona. He made 16 starts last year with a 4.75 ERA and a high walk rate, but with 11.0 strikeouts-per-nine-innings. He can bring the heat with a 96 mph four-seamer, mixing in a slider and curve, and a change up that has a 48 percent whiff rate.
The Royals will likely have a bullpen game on Wednesday with both Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo out, although Luinder Avila could be a possibility to be called up. All-Star Logan Webb leads the National League in batters faced and FIP, and he has led the league in innings pitched in each of the last two seasons. His sinker yields a ton of grounders, and his 59 percent groundball rate is the fourth-highest among all starters. He gave up just one run in eight innings in a win in his last start against the Athletics.
The Giants bullpen has been the best in baseball so far with an ERA of 2.51. Former All-Star closer Camilo Doval struggled last year and lost his closing duties, but this year’s closer Ryan Walker has been the one to struggle this year. Walker had 99 strikeouts in 80 innings last year, but has struggled a bit this year with a decline in strikeout rate, and two blown saves already. Doval has come on to clean up some messes and has earned five saves, despite a drop in strikeout rate as well, because opponents are hitting just .113 against him.
Randy Rodriguez has the eighth-lowest ERA among relievers, the ninth-highest strikeout rate, and the second-lowest walk rate. Tyler Rogers has a 63 percent groundball rate, eighth-highest among relievers. Lefties are hitting just .150/.292/.150 against St. Louis native Erik Miller.
The Giants swept the Royals in Kansas City last year, with the Royals scoring just one run in three games. The Royals will have to get their offense going against a very good pitching staff as they begin a tough road trip that will take them to Minnesota this weekend.