It seems like guys just up from the minors give them fits.
On Wednesday, the Royals faced Astros lefty Colton Gordon, who was making his MLB debut. The Royals managed three runs against him, chasing him out of the game in the fifth inning, not a bad offensive showing for a lineup that has struggled. It wasn’t enough, however, as the Royals could not manage any more runs as the Astros rallied back and won 4-3.
Perhaps the Royals could have taken advantage of having a novice big leaguer on the mound with more of an offensive explosion, but it seems like pitchers making their big league debut has been kryptonite for Kansas City hitters. But has this really been true? I went back and found all the pitchers who have made their MLB debut against the Royals since 2014. I did filter out starts of less than two innings, to avoid getting “openers”, although this may have also filtered out pitchers who were getting shelled by the second inning.
The Royals went 8-6 (.571) against pitchers making their MLB debut in the last ten years, and those pitchers had a 4.98 ERA against them. Royals hitters have a 16 percent strikeout rate against them, and a 5.1 percent walk rate. Most of these were no-namers that didn’t stick in the big leagues – Cole Irvin is the only one that managed to stick more than a few seasons. How does this compare to all MLB debuts?
If you look at all MLB debuts since 2014, those 485 pitchers had an ERA of 5.01 in their first start. Teams opposing pitchers making their MLB debut went 264-221 (.544). Opposing hitters struck out 19.4 percent of the time and walked at a 9.3 percent rate.
So, aside from walking less (shocker!), Royals hitters actually fare slightly better against pitchers making their MLB debut than MLB hitters as a whole. What about pitchers who aren’t making their debut, but are simply new? I expanded the scope to look at starting pitchers and how they fared in their first five games.
The Royals have faced 70 starting pitchers who are in the first five games of their career and have gone just 30-40 (.429) against those pitchers. Those rookie pitchers have a solid 4.29 ERA with a 17.3 percent strikeout rate and 6 percent walk rate.
Compare that to all starting pitchers in their first five games throughout baseball since 2014. The 677 pitchers combined to have a 4.90 ERA with a 19 percent strikeout rate and 9 percent walk rate. Those pitchers had a winning percentage of just 40 percent in those starts, although I don’t have data on how the teams fared in win/loss percentage in those games. But while the Royals have a losing record against team starting inexperienced pitchers, MLB teams as a whole seem to win against them with a lot more frequency.
So while Royals hitters may not fare all that poorly against pitchers making their debut, they do seem to struggle against pitchers recently up from the minors. Why is that?
It could be a lack of preparation over the years. There may not be much of a scouting report for some of these pitchers, making it difficult for hitters to adjust to their opponents’ arsenal. But that seems less likely now when there is so much data available, even at the minor league level.
What stands out to me is the walk rate. New pitchers are generally pretty wild! But the Royals have traditionally had little plate discipline. So it could be they are chasing a lot and getting themselves out more than other hitters, helping out their fresh-faced opponent.