The Royals take on their state rivals as the Missouri Legislature determines the fate of a new ballpark.
After a slow start, the Cardinals got hot in May and find themselves firmly in contention. They had a nine-game winning streak in the early part of the month, and have won six of their last nine going into their cross-state showdown against the Royals.
Kansas City Royals (31-29) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (33-26) at Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Royals: 3.23 runs scored/game (28th in MLB), 3.35 runs allowed/game (3rd)
Cardinals: 4.63 runs scored/game (8th), 4.12 runs allowed/game (13th)
The Cardinals took two of three from the Royals in Kansas City back in May, allowing just five runs in the set. Their 19-8 home record is third-best, and they are 16-12 against teams with a .500 record or better, also third-best in baseball.
Only four teams have hit fewer home runs than the Cardinals, but they have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate. They’ve been a terrific offense team at home, hitting .281/.350/.425 and averaging 4.85 runs-per-game at Busch.
Brendan Donovan is hitting .361/.421/.490 against righties this year and he has the eighth-best contact rate overall. Lars Nootbaar is hitting .309/.429/.474 at home this season. Iván Herrera is hitting .448/.486/.759 with runners in scoring position.
Nolan Arenado has a 16.3 percent pop-up rate, ninth-highest in baseball. He is a career 1-for-12 hitter against Michael Lorenzen, but the only hit was a home run. Willson Contreras is hitting just .196/.236/.255 over his last 13 games. Victor Scott II is just 2-for-his last 24 (.083) with 11 strikeouts.
Only six teams have fewer stolen bases than the Cardinals, and they are below-average with a 74 percent success rate. The Cardinals lead baseball in Outs Above Average on defense with Scott in center and Masyn Winn at shortstop among the best defenders in baseball. Catcher Pedro Pagés has thrown out 29 percent of base-stealing attempts.
Andre Pallante has a groundball rate of 63.6 percent, second-highest in baseball, and he has the tenth-lowest strikeout rate. He has four quality starts in his 11 outings and had a 4.34 ERA in May. Pallante throws a 94 mph fastball, a slider that has a 37 percent whiff rate, and a sinnker that opponents have hit .343 against.
Miles Mikolas lasted just four innings with four runs allowed in his last start, but had a 1.34 ERA in the six starts prior to that, including six shutout innings against the Royals in Kansas City. He has never lost to the Royals, going 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four starts. Bobby Witt Jr. is 0-for-9 with four strikeouts against him. Opponents are hitting just .176/.262/.284 at Busch Stadium against Mikolas this year.
Liberatore gave up five runs in five innings in his last start, the first time since April 7 he had given up more than two runs in a start. He gave up one run in six innings in a no-decision against the Royals a few weeks ago. Lefties are hitting .212/.281/.231 against him and he has a 1.69 ERA at home. Liberatore has the third-lowest walk rate in baseball.
The Cardinals have a 4.08 ERA from their bullpen, and their relievers have the second-lowest strikeout rate. Closer Ryan Helsley blew two saves in April, but has converted nine in a row since then. He has the ninth-highest pop-up rate among relievers. Steven Matz has a 3 percent walk rate, third-lowest in baseball. John King has a 12.6 percent strikeout rate, seventh-lowest among relievers, and a 60 percent groundball rate. Lefties are hitting .115/.226/.154 against JoJo Romero.
The Royals take on their Show-Me State rivals just as the Missouri Legislature is meeting this week to determine whether to commit funds to a new ballpark. At least we know they’ll be watching, and with Jac Caglianone making his MLB debut in St. Louis, perhaps the Royals can do some lobbying from the batter’s box.