The past is fun, but the future might be exciting for both teams.
This marks the 40th anniversary of the Royals defeating the cross-state rivals, the Cardinals, in the 1985 World Series. Many members of that club are in town to be honored, as well as members of the 2015 team celebrating their 10th anniversary. For most of the 40 years since the Show-Me Showdown, the Cardinals have been good while the Royals have been bad, but as we embark on this weekend, both teams seem poised to be contenders this season.
St. Louis Cardinals (24-20) vs. Kansas City Royals (25-20) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Cardinals: 4.82 runs scored/game (7th in MLB), 4.11 runs allowed/game (13th)
Royals: 3.42 runs scored/game (27th), 3.29 runs allowed/game (2nd)
The Cardinals are red hot, having won 10 of their last 11, although six of those wins are against the Pirates and Nationals. The Cardinals are just 9-14 on the road this year, winning their first road series of the year on this current road trip.
Cardinals hitters have the tenth-best walk rate and the sixth-lowest strikeout rate. Nolan Arenado is still in St. Louis despite efforts to trade him. His power is down, but his underlying metrics are still good, and he is one of the hardest hitters to strike out. Willson Contreras got off to a dreadfully slow start, but has been on fire lately, hitting .358.459/.580 with five home runs over his last 15 games. Catcher Ivan Herrera returned last week after missing a month with a bone bruise. He enjoyed a three-homer game earlier this year and has five home runs in just 12 games.
Victor Scott II is tied for the fifth-most stolen bases in baseball. He hits to the opposite field nearly 35 percent of the time, one of the highest rates in baseball. Jordan Walker continues to struggle – his 31.2 percent strikeout rate is fourth-highest in baseball. Lars Nootbaar is a .178/.279/.344 hitter away from Busch Stadium. Masyn Winn is hitting just .125/.263./219 against lefties.
The Cardinals have a few players that can run, but aside from Scott have just 18 total steals. They are fifth-worst in baseball in Baserunning Runs. They lead baseball in Outs Above Average, with Scott, Arenado, and Winn all superlative on defense.
Andre Pallante leads all pitchers with at least 40 innings in groundball rate at 65 percent. But opponents are hitting .333 against his sinker this year, while his slider has a 33.3 percent whiff rate. He has the worst home run-to-flyball rate in baseball. He gave up two runs in 7 1⁄3 innings with no walks in a win over the Nationals in his last outing.
Miles Mikolas gave up nine runs in less than three innings in his second start of the year, but has not given up more than three runs in his six starts since. Opponents are hitting .361 against his 92 mph fastball this year. Mikolas is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in three career starts against the Royals. Bobby Witt Jr. is 0-for-6 with three strikeouts against him.
Michael Wacha gets to face his original team on Sunday, with lefty Matthew Liberatore going for the Cards. Liberatore has a 2.12 ERA over his last six starts with just seven walks. He relies heavily on his sinker and slider to go along with his 94 mph fastball. He had a big platoon split last year, but has been virtually the same against righties and lefties this year.
Cardinals relievers have a solid 3.89 ERA, but the third-lowest strikeout rate in baseball. Closer Ryan Helsley led the National League with 49 saves last year, but has already blown two of his ten save opportunities this year. He has one of the highest walk rates among relievers, although four of his ten walks came in one April appearance against Boston. Longtime starter Steven Matz – who pitched in the 2015 World Series for the Mets – is having some success as a reliever this year despite a very low strikeout rate. John King has a 62.7 percent groundball rate. Lefties are hitting just .111/.261/.167 against JoJo Romero.
The Cardinals were in a weird transition period the last two seasons, missing the playoffs both years. They have some promising young players that could help them return to the post-season. This weekend will be a nostalgic look back, but both the Royals and Cardinals may have an exciting near future.