Toronto has been a contender, but has won just one playoff game since the 2015 ALCS
Nine years ago, the Royals bested the Blue Jays in a terrific six-game series to win the 2015 American League pennant. The Blue Jays quickly bottomed out not long after that, rebuilding a new contending team that has made the playoffs in three of the last four years but has not won a post-season game over that time. The Royals’ rebuild has taken a bit longer, but there are signs the two teams could be clashing again for meaningful baseball games again soon.
Toronto Blue Jays (12-10) vs. Kansas City Royals (13-9) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Blue Jays: 3.91 runs scored/game (21st in MLB), 4.50 runs allowed/game (15th)
Royals: 4.91 runs scored/game (11th), 3.18 runs allowed/game (1st)
The Blue Jays got off to a bit of a slow start, but have won their last four consecutive series, and six of their last eight games. Their hitters have the seventh-best walk rate and the fifth-lowest strikeout rate. They have stolen 14 bases in 17 attempts, but have the third-lowest Baserunning Runs. Fangraphs rates them the top defense so far in Defensive Runs Saved with terrific performances from outfielders Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier, as well as infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
Toronto got back to contention by developing a good nucleus of young hitters, but many are off to slow starts in the power department. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. led the league in home runs in 2021, but has seen his home run totals decline each year since and has just three home runs so far this year. George Springer was finally healthy last year and put up a 20/20 season, but is off to a cold start this year. Justin Turner is 8-for-11 against lefties this year with four doubles and a home run.
Yusei Kikuchi has given up just 11 hits and two runs with 25 strikeouts over his last three starts, two of which were against the Yankees. Lefties his just .214 against him last year with a 28 percent strikeout rate. He features a 95 mph fastball, a curve, and a plus slider.
Kevin Gausman was an All-Star last year as he led the league in strikeouts, but he is off to a dreadful start this year, having yet to pitch more than five innings in a start. He prominently features a sinker and splitter to get a groundball rate over 40 percent, but his four-seamer has been hammered this year.
The Blue Jays signed Cuban-born Yariel Rodríguez out of Japan this off-season. He had been a reliever for the Chunichi Dragons, but has made two starts for the Blue Jays, although he has yet to pitch more than four innings in an outing. The 27-year-old right-hander throws a 95 mph fastball with a slider and splitter.
José Berríos rebounded nicely last year after a terrible 2022. He has a lot of experience against the Royals, going 7-5 in 22 starts against them, but with a 4.72 ERA. This year he has a groundball rate north of 50 percent so far this year, and opponents are hitting just .139 against his slurve with a 39.7 percent whiff rate.
The Toronto bullpen has struggled with a 5.24 ERA, sixth-worst in baseball, and they have given up the highest home run rate. All-Star closer Jordan Romano began the season on the Injured List with elbow inflammation, but has returned to convert his first two save opportunities. Yimi Garcia has the fifth-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in baseball. Erik Swanson and Tim Mayza each had ERAs under three last year, but have gotten off to a slow start this year. Lefties hit just .198/.264/.366 against Genesis Cabrera last year.
The Royals have had a fairly difficult schedule to begin the year – of their first eight series, this series will be the fifth against a team that made the playoffs last year. The Blue Jays are a talented team full of veterans and youngsters that will test the Royals, but they have enough flaws that make them beatable.