In which BracketCat simulates first-round results for the “left side” of the 16-team playoff bracket for 2024.
I was interested to see if these games would diverge greatly from the real-world results we saw last December, but through three games, the same winning teams ended up moving on to the second round and the same losing teams fell out at the same stage they did in 2024.
The final game was of extreme interest, though, matching as it did two teams who both lost in the first round of the real playoff. Scroll down to the bottom to see who would move on!
Today’s Games
Game 1: No. 16 Clemson (10-3) @ No. 1 Oregon (13-0)
The surprise ACC champion travels to take on the undefeated Big Ten champion. As everyone who voted in the poll predicted, it wasn’t particularly close.
No. 1 seed Oregon Ducks (13-0; AP/Coaches #1): Big Ten Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): #9 Boise State, #6 Ohio State, #20 Illinois, vs. #4 Penn State
Losses: none
Head Coach: Dan Lanning (3rd season)
Offensive Style: Spread option
Quarterback: Dillon Gabriel
Running Backs: Jordan James and Da’Jaun Riggs
Wide Receivers: Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden
Tight End: Terrance Ferguson
No. 16 seed Clemson Tigers (10-3; AP/Coaches #13): ACC Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Win (CFP Rankings): @Pittsburgh (7-6), vs. #10 SMU
Losses: vs. #2 Georgia, RV Louisville, #15 South Carolina
Head Coach: Dabo Swinney (16th full, 17th overall season)
Offensive Style: Power raid
Quarterback: Cade Klubnik
Running Backs: Phil Mafah and Jay Haynes
Wide Receivers: Antonio Williams and Bryant Wesco Jr.
Tight End: Jake Briningstool
Final Score: Oregon 45, Clemson 13
Autzen Stadium – Eugene, Oregon
Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024 – 12 PM PST / 3 PM EST
Precipitation: 0.01 in
Temperature: 52
Wind: SSE 8 MPH
Player of the Game: Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel
EUGENE, Ore. (AP) — Home-field advantage proved decisive as No. 1 Oregon surged to a dominant 45-13 victory over No. 13 Clemson in a first-round playoff showdown Saturday.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel orchestrated a potent offense and a swarming Oregon defense forced momentum-swinging mistakes in a game the Tigers (10-4) simply couldn’t shake.
After trading opening field goals, Clemson grabbed a momentary edge on a 39-yard Phil Mafah touchdown run, but the Tigers never found their rhythm after that.
Oregon (14-0) responded with a pair of second-quarter rushing touchdowns and blew the game wide open with 28 unanswered points across the second and third quarters.
Gabriel, named Player of the Game, completed 20 of 28 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. His first scoring strike came with 4:22 left in the fourth quarter when he connected with Terrance Ferguson on an 11-yard pass. His next, laid in perfectly for Kenyon Sadiq from 26 yards out, cemented the home rout.
But before those fourth-quarter fireworks, the Ducks’ ground game wore down the Tigers.
Jordan James punched in two rushing touchdowns, netting 94 yards on 27 carries, while Da’Jaun Riggs added a pair of his own on runs of 31 and 2 yards, tallying 82 yards in total.
The back-to-back scores just over 40 seconds apart in the second quarter flipped the lead and forced Clemson into a reactive mode for the rest of the game.
Clemson leaned heavily on Mafah, who rushed 21 times for 131 yards and the lone Tigers’ touchdown. Jay Haynes chipped in 80 yards on seven carries, but Clemson’s offense sputtered otherwise, managing only 154 passing yards, no passing touchdowns, and surrendering two sacks for 11 yards.
The Tigers converted just 7 of 20 third downs, compared with Oregon’s 6 of 15.
The Ducks rolled up 31 first downs — more than double Clemson’s 13 — and controlled the clock, keeping Clemson’s usually explosive offense off the field.
Their defense forced a Clemson fumble midway through the first half. Oregon imposed its will physically, rushing for 184 yards on 54 carries and neutralizing Clemson’s defensive front.
Clemson’s only second-half score came on a consolation 22-yard field goal by Nolan Hauser early in the fourth quarter after Oregon had already extended control. By then, the outcome was academic.
The Ducks look like legitimate title contenders after shattering Clemson. Meanwhile, the Tigers leave Eugene with questions about offensive identity and third-down inefficiency.
Game 2: No. 13 Miami (10-2) @ No. 4 Penn State (11-2)
Possibly the ACC’s actual best team travels to take on the Big Ten championship game runner-up. As 70% of those who voted in the poll predicted, the home team pulled away.
No. 4 seed Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2; AP/Coaches #5): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @West Virginia, @USC (7-6), #20 Illinois, @Minnesota (8-5)
Losses: #6 Ohio State, vs. #1 Oregon
Head Coach: James Franklin (11th season)
Offensive Style: Pro spread
Quarterback: Drew Allar
Running Backs: Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen
Wide Receivers: Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans
Tight End: Tyler Warren
No. 13 seed Miami Hurricanes (10-2; AP #15; Coaches #16): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @RV Florida (8-5), @RV Louisville (9-4), Duke (9-4)
Losses: @Georgia Tech, @#21 Syracuse
Head Coach: Mario Cristobal (3rd overall season)
Offensive Style: Spread, air raid
Quarterback: Cam Ward
Running Backs: Damien Martinez and Mark Fletcher Jr.
Wide Receivers: Xavier Restrepo and Isaiah Horton
Tight End: Elijah Arroyo
Final Score: Penn State 31, Miami 22
Beaver Stadium – University Park, Pennsylvania
Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024 – 12 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 27
Wind: NNW 20 MPH, gusting to 26 MPH
Player of the Game: Penn State QB Drew Allar
STATE COLLEGE, Pa. (AP) — Drew Allar threw three touchdown passes and No. 5 Penn State capitalized on two Miami turnovers to outlast the Hurricanes 31-22 in a first-round playoff matchup on Saturday.
No. 15 Miami (10-3) built a 9-0 lead behind three early field goals from Abram Murray, but the Nittany Lions roared back with 21 unanswered points spanning the second and third quarters. Allar’s two first-half touchdown tosses gave Penn State (12-2) a halftime lead, and a third-quarter pick-six stretched it to 21-9.
The Hurricanes outgained the Nittany Lions 517-430 and dominated the passing game behind Cam Ward’s 373 yards. But they repeatedly stalled in the red zone, settling for five field goals and finishing just 8 of 20 on third down. Ward also was intercepted twice, including a game-shifting 46-yard return in the third quarter.
Damien Martinez gave Miami life with a 40-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter to cut the deficit to 24-22. But Allar responded immediately, capping a 75-yard drive with a short scoring pass to Harrison Wallace III to seal the win.
Allar finished 21 of 33 passing for 271 yards and no turnovers. Nicholas Singleton ran for 106 yards on 14 carries, while Penn State’s defense made up for being outgained with timely takeaways and red-zone stops.
Miami’s explosive plays couldn’t overcome its inefficiency. Martinez ran for 103 yards, Jordan Lyle added a 62-yard burst and Xavier Restrepo led all receivers with 104 yards.
But the Hurricanes failed to find the end zone often enough, and their defense couldn’t get a final stop.
Penn State advances as a battle-tested team that bent but didn’t break, thanks in large part to Allar’s steady hand and a defense that delivered in the biggest moments.
Game 3: No. 12 Arizona State (11-2) @ No. 5 Notre Dame (11-1)
The surprise Big 12 champion travels to take on a college football blueblood. Sixty percent of you predicted an upset in the poll, but that unfortunately didn’t prove to be the case.
No. 5 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1; AP/Coaches #3): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @RV Texas A&M, RV Louisville, vs. RV Navy, vs. #22 Army
Loss: Northern Illinois
Head Coach: Marcus Freeman (3rd season)
Offensive Style: Multiple
Quarterback: Riley Leonard
Running Backs: Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price
Wide Receivers: Beaux Collins and Jordan Faison
Tight End: Mitchell Evans
No. 12 seed Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2; AP/Coaches #10): Big 12 Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @RV Kansas State (9-4), #17 BYU, vs. #18 Iowa State
Losses: @Texas Tech, @Cincinnati
Head Coach: Kenny Dillingham (2nd overall season)
Offensive Style: Pistol
Quarterback: Sam Leavitt
Running Backs: Cam Skattebo and Jason Brown Jr.
Wide Receivers: Jordyn Tyson and Xavier Guillory
Tight End: Chamon Metayer
Final Score: Notre Dame 38, Arizona State 24
Notre Dame Stadium – South Bend, Indiana
Friday, Dec. 20, 2024 – 8 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 30
Wind: NNE 13 MPH
Player of the Game: Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo
SOUTH BEND, Ind. (AP) — Despite the heroics of an Arizona State running back, No. 3 Notre Dame (12-1) used a late fourth-quarter surge and a balanced rushing attack to pull away from the Sun Devils 38-24 on Friday night in a first-round playoff game.
Tied 24-24 early in the final quarter, the Fighting Irish took control behind freshman Aneyas Williams, who scored two rushing touchdowns in the game’s final eight minutes to put No. 10 Arizona State (11-3) away. Williams finished with 31 yards on just six carries, but made the most of his red-zone touches.
Cam Skattebo did everything he could to keep Arizona State close, piling up 156 rushing yards, 37 receiving yards and a 25-yard touchdown run. He also added a 70-yard punt return for a score that gave the Sun Devils a brief 21-17 lead in the third quarter.
But ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt threw three interceptions, two of them in the second half, stalling promising drives. Notre Dame’s Adon Shuler picked off two of them, and the Irish defense held firm in key moments, including a fourth-down stop late in the game.
Notre Dame got 67 yards and two touchdowns from Jadarian Price, who sparked a second-quarter rally with scoring runs of 3 and 48 yards. Quarterback Riley Leonard managed the game effectively, throwing for 191 yards and a touchdown, and rushing for 34 more.
Arizona State actually outgained Notre Dame 369-393 and won the time-of-possession battle, but the Irish made their possessions count—converting 8 of 16 third downs and going 5-for-5 in the red zone.
Despite the loss, Skattebo was named Player of the Game for his all-purpose performance.
But it was Notre Dame’s depth, composure and ability to capitalize on turnovers that proved the difference down the stretch.
Game 4: No. 9 Boise State (12-1) @ No. 8 Indiana (11-1)
The Mountain West champion travels to take on a relative newcomer to the power football scene. Despite 90% of you predicting an upset in the poll, it sadly wasn’t meant to be.
No. 8 seed Indiana Hoosiers (11-1; AP/Coaches #9): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): Nebraska (7-6), Michigan (8-5)
Loss: @ #6 Ohio State
Head Coach: Curt Cignetti (1st season)
Offensive Style: Spread
Quarterback: Kurtis Rourke
Running Backs: Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton
Wide Receivers: Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt
Tight End: Zach Horton
No. 9 seed Boise State Broncos (12-1; AP/Coaches #8): MWC Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): Washington State (8-5), @ #24 UNLV, vs. #24 UNLV
Losses: @ #1 Oregon
Head Coach: Spencer Danielson (1st full, 2nd overall season)
Offensive Style: Pro spread
Quarterback: Maddux Madsen
Running Backs: Ashton Jeanty and Sire Gaines
Wide Receivers: Cameron Camper and Prince Strachan
Tight End: Matt Lauter
Final Score: Indiana 34, Boise State 24
Memorial Stadium – Bloomington, Indiana
Friday, Dec. 20, 2024 – 5 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 34
Wind: NNW 23 MPH, gusting to 32 mph
Player of the Game: Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. (AP) — Justice Ellison broke loose for 150 yards and two fourth-quarter rushing touchdowns as No. 9 Indiana rallied to stun No. 8 Boise State 34-24 on Friday.
Trailing 24-17 entering the final period, the Hoosiers (12-1) dominated the final period with 17 unanswered points, including Ellison’s 31-yard go-ahead touchdown run with 5:02 remaining. The Indiana defense then held firm, forcing a punt and setting up Nicolas Radicic’s 42-yard field goal to seal the win with just over a minute left.
Boise State leaned heavily on running back Ashton Jeanty, who turned in one of the most dominant performances of the season. Jeanty carried 34 times for 323 yards, including a 47-yard touchdown run in the second quarter that gave the Broncos a 21-14 lead. He also caught a 1-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Maddux Madsen in the first quarter.
Despite Jeanty’s heroics and a 563-461 advantage in total yardage, Boise State (12-2) couldn’t close it out. The Broncos managed just three points in the second half, struggling on third down (4 for 14) and committing seven penalties.
Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke threw for 265 yards and two scores, spreading the ball to 10 different receivers. Donaven McCulley tied the game at 24 midway through the fourth on an 18-yard touchdown catch.
Madsen finished with 200 yards and two touchdowns for Boise State, but was intercepted once and sacked three times. The Broncos had a chance to answer after falling behind late, yet their final drive fizzled near midfield.
Jeanty was named Player of the Game for his explosive effort, but it was Indiana’s poise and late-game execution that made the difference. The win sends the Hoosiers into the next round, while Boise State exits with a performance that showcased its talent and moxie.
Tomorrow’s Games
To make these posts more fun and interactive, please vote for who you think would win each matchup! I can’t promise to take the votes into account because of the simulation process I use, but it will be interesting to see and discuss the results, plus they may serve as a sort of a tiebreaker if I end up needing one.
BracketCat’s Protest Playoff Archives
2024: Kickoff | Selection Sunday
2008: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data
2007: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2006: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2005: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2004: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data
2003: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2002: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2001: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2000: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data | Encore
1999: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data | Encore
1998: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data | Encore