In which BracketCat selects and seeds the 16-team field for the 2024 season, as well as examining a variety of alternate playoff field possibilities using the same pool of teams.
Welcome to the first Selection Sunday of the new Protest Playoff! We will start with last year.
For this first section of playoff recreations (2014-2024), this will be pretty easy. We have the committee’s final CFP rankings for each year and can seed off those, along with champions.
In case you’ve already forgotten, the final CFP rankings for the 2024 season were (conference champions designated by asterisks):
- Oregon* (13-0)
- Georgia* (11-2)
- Texas (11-2)
- Penn State (11-2)
- Notre Dame (11-1)
- Ohio State (10-2)
- Tennessee (10-2)
- Indiana (11-1)
- Boise State* (12-1)
- SMU (11-2)
- Alabama (9-3)
- Arizona State* (11-2)
- Miami (10-2)
- Ole Miss (9-3)
- South Carolina (9-3)
- Clemson* (10-3)
- BYU (10-2)
- Iowa State (10-3)
- Missouri (9-3)
- Illinois (9-3)
- Syracuse (9-3)
- Army* (11-1)
- Colorado (9-3)
- UNLV (10-3)
- Memphis (10-2)
Other teams who made appearances in the CFP rankings in November and/or December, but could not stay in the final set, included our beloved Kansas State (8-4), Louisville (8-4), LSU (8-4), Pittsburgh (7-5), Texas A&M (8-4), Tulane (9-3) and Washington State (8-4).
Our Actual Field: 16 Teams, 5+11 Model
Under this model, the five highest ranked conference champions — Oregon (Big Ten), Georgia (SEC), Boise State (MWC), Arizona State (Big 12) and Clemson (ACC) — all would receive automatic bids, just as they did in actuality.
But seeding and byes are not tied to championship status, a decision that matches the one already reached for the 2025 12-team playoff after just one year of a flawed seeding process almost no one (outside of the ACC, Big 12 or Mountain West conferences) liked very much.
The remaining 11 teams are drawn from the highest-ranked remaining schools in the committee’s final playoff rankings, yielding the following list of national seeds for PP 2024:
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Texas
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Indiana
- Boise State
- SMU
- Alabama
- Arizona State
- Miami
- Ole Miss
- South Carolina
- Clemson
It is pure happenstance that this worked out to match the top 16 teams exactly; I do not expect that to be the case in future (past) installments of this series. The percentage of participants hailing from one particular conference with its own captured media outlet? Well, I leave that discussion to our fine readers in the comments, but I have opinions (especially with BYU and Iowa State being the first two teams left out — par for the course).
It is worth noting here the greatest deviation between this model and the one I used in my 2009 series of posts: I included all 10 (at the time; now it’s nine) conference champions and only had six remaining at-large teams. While this is the more egalitarian model in terms of widening national participation across multiple levels of FBS, it is entirely unrealistic — even more so now that the P4 (and especially the B1G and SEC) continue to pull away financially.
However, for those who care, under that model Army (AAC), Jacksonville State (CUSA), Marshall (Sun Belt) and Ohio (MAC) would replace Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina, so basically it would be the 12-team field we did get plus these four mid-majors.
As hilarious as it would be to see the look on Greg Sankey’s face if that happened, I think we can all agree it would produce a much more watered-down field and likely four blowouts.
Alternate Field: 16 Teams, Conference Autobid Model
If the Big Ten’s preferred plan were applied instead, these would be your 16 teams (those in bold received the conference or G5 autobids; the rest are at-large selections):
- Oregon (B1G)
- Georgia (SEC)
- Texas (SEC)
- Penn State (B1G)
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State (B1G)
- Tennessee (SEC)
- Indiana (B1G)
- Boise State (G5)
- SMU (ACC)
- Alabama (SEC)
- Arizona State (Big 12)
- Miami
- Ole Miss
- Clemson (ACC)
- BYU (Big 12)
As you can see, this model does not produce radically different results, but it does benefit the Big 12 with an auto-entrant who otherwise would not have been selected, at the SEC’s expense in the form of South Carolina. Iowa State still gets left out, of course, but given the last taste they left in the committee’s mouth in Arlington, I can’t say I’d shed tears for them.
I do not think this model will benefit the Big 12 more than 5+11 in many past years, but it’s something worth monitoring and continuing to discuss as the model debate rages on.
Of course, this all presumes the biggest conferences would still play traditional championship games that produce rankings such as these; the plan, as we know, is to not.
Alternate Model: Eight Teams
For the sake of this exercise, I am going to assume the four major conferences would receive conference champion autobids and the other four teams would be selected at large. I think with only eight spots, the G5 would have a hard sell on getting an autobid.
(This is one of the reasons we jumped straight from four to 12, in fact — to avoid antitrust.)
I’m also going to presume under this model that champions would get to host, but since the first-round games likely would be played in bowl environments, that simply decides who gets to wear which jersey and possibly who gets which bowl (higher seeds closer to home):
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Arizona State
- Clemson
- Texas
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
While this possibly pares the field down to the likely best teams, we all know how this story ends, with Nos. 7 and 8 embarrassing 1 and 2 on their home-like fields, then downing 5/6.
We would have seen a fun (and winnable!) matchup between Arizona State and Penn State, though. The Sun Devils would have had a real chance to advance to face Notre Dame.
Given that the outcomes likely don’t diverge, why not have a larger field and extend more opportunity to nontraditional teams such as Boise State, BYU, Indiana and SMU? What does it possibly hurt? The best teams will still win out! Twelve was definitely the right choice.
Alternate Field: The CFP Four
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Texas
- Penn State
Given what we just saw Ohio State do, and the way these two conferences are trying to pull away from everyone else anyway, I think it’s clear that not only is the expanded playoff the much better model, but just one year of its results called into question the entire legitimacy of every “playoff” from 2014 through 2023. Hence, the point of this entire exercise!
Alternate Field: The Good Ol’ BCS
I know I, for one, would have been super excited for that Georgia–Oregon showdown in the, what, Rose Bowl? (Insert eye roll here.) Or better yet, just award the championship outright to Oregon for finishing atop the Associated Press and coaches’ polls like we used to do!
2024: What Really Happened
As we all know (come on, January wasn’t that long ago), champ Ohio State started off the first-ever 12-team playoff as an 8 seed and became the first team ever to win four straight “win or go home” postseason games to finish 14-2, led by our very own Will Howard.
No. 9 seed Tennessee, 1 seed Oregon, and fifth-seeded Texas all fell by the wayside in the Buckeyes’ wake, while Oregon also joined 2 seed Georgia, 3 seed Boise State and 4 seed Arizona State (barely!) as losers coming off byes to teams that played the prior week.
Um, any remaining questions why byes are now going away as we expand to 16 teams?
Honorable mention goes to No. 7 seed Notre Dame, who downed 10 seed Indiana, Georgia and sixth-seeded Penn State on the way to their fateful matchup with Ohio State, and in so doing outpaced the accomplishments of any other Fighting Irish team since 1988.
Other real-life playoff participants were the ACC’s 12 seed Clemson, who could not hang at Texas, and an 11th-seeded SMU that faced similar issues against Penn State in Happy Valley.
Among our other hypothetical playoff participants, these were the real-world finishes:
- Alabama really proved it belonged in the playoff field by losing to 7-5 Michigan 19-13 in the ReliaQuest Bowl and becoming the worst poster child ever for the “SEC disrespect” card.
- Miami kicked Iowa State’s asses for a half, then watched their No. 1 overall NFL draft pick quarterback walk off into the sunset 30 minutes too early as the Cyclones came back to win 42-41 and enjoy the sweet deliciousness of a live-sacrificed Pop-Tart man instead.
- Ole Miss at least showed up for the postseason, creaming Duke 52-20 in the Gator Bowl.
- South Carolina chose Alabama’s path, losing 21-17 to mediocre Illinois in the Citrus Bowl.
- BYU got to play a 10th conference game and in the process end the season/college careers of one of the most loud-mouthed families ever to walk a college football sideline together.
Wikipedia’s 2024 season summary
Tomorrow’s Games
To make these posts more fun and interactive, please vote for who you think would win each matchup! I can’t promise to take the votes into account because of the simulation process I use, but it will be interesting to see and discuss the results, plus they may serve as a sort of a tiebreaker if I end up needing one.
BracketCat’s Protest Playoff Archives
2024: Kickoff
2008: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data
2007: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2006: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2005: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2004: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data
2003: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2002: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2001: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2000: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data | Encore
1999: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data | Encore
1998: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data | Encore