In which BracketCat simulates third-round bowl results for the 16-team playoff bracket for 2024.
One semifinal features a familiar set of opponents, just a few weeks later in the playoff, while the other sees a rematch of an equally exciting semifinal in the 2022 4-team playoff.
Scroll on to see who could have advanced to the 2024-25 national championship game!
(One note on bowl selection: Seeds have priority order for the bowl closest to their home campus, so Oregon gets Cotton and Georgia gets Orange. This does not change regardless of top seeds being knocked out as host sites must be set at the start of the playoff bracket.)
Today’s Games
2025 Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic:
No. 8 Indiana (13-1) vs. No. 5 Notre Dame (13-1)
The Indiana in-state matchup still occurs, just a couple of rounds later than expected (and in an entirely different state). No matter when or where, though, the same result seems fated.
No. 5 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1; AP/Coaches #3): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): vs. #22 Army, #12 Arizona State, vs. #4 Penn State
Loss: Northern Illinois
Head Coach: Marcus Freeman (3rd season)
Offensive Style: Multiple
Quarterback: Riley Leonard
Running Backs: Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price
Wide Receivers: Beaux Collins and Jordan Faison
Tight End: Mitchell Evans
No. 8 seed Indiana Hoosiers (13-1; AP/Coaches #9): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): Nebraska (7-6), Michigan (8-5), #9 Boise State, vs. #1 Oregon
Loss: @ #6 Ohio State
Head Coach: Curt Cignetti (1st season)
Offensive Style: Spread
Quarterback: Kurtis Rourke
Running Backs: Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton
Wide Receivers: Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt
Tight End: Zach Horton
Final Score: Notre Dame 30, Indiana 23
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
Friday, Jan. 10, 2025 – 6:30 PM CST / 7:30 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 72
Wind: None (indoor stadium)
Player of the Game: Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love
ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) — Jeremiyah Love’s postseason magic continued with three more rushing touchdowns as No. 3 Notre Dame overcame a slow start and two second-half interceptions to defeat No. 9 Indiana 30-23 in a gritty Cotton Bowl Classic win that sends the Fighting Irish to the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship.
Love, who had 133 rushing yards on just 15 carries, broke the game open with a 48-yard touchdown run late in the third quarter and added the go-ahead score in the fourth as Notre Dame (14-1) fought back from a 10-point deficit to outlast the Cinderella Hoosiers.
Indiana (13-2), having made a surprise run to the CFP semifinals, took control early thanks to a touchdown pass from Kurtis Rourke to Ke’Shawn Williams and two field goals from Nicolas Radicic, including a 50-yarder in the fourth quarter that cut the Irish lead to 27-23.
But Notre Dame responded with a clock-chewing drive capped by Mitch Jeter’s 26-yard field goal with 1:36 to play. The Irish defense sealed it with a fourth-down stop near midfield after Indiana’s last-ditch effort stalled.
Despite being outgained through the air — Indiana posted 373 passing yards on 57 attempts — Notre Dame’s defense sacked the Hoosiers quarterbacks five times and forced a key second-quarter fumble that kept the deficit manageable. Linebacker Drayk Bowen and defensive lineman Boubacar Traore led a front seven that wore Indiana down late.
Quarterback Riley Leonard had 213 passing yards and a touchdown, but also threw two interceptions. His 17-yard touchdown strike to Jordan Faison in the third quarter tied the game and gave Notre Dame momentum heading into the fourth.
Notre Dame advances to its first national championship appearance since the 2012 season, where they’ll face either Georgia or Ohio State in Atlanta.
With Love surging and the defense stiffening in clutch moments, the Irish are one win away from their first national title since 1988.
2025 Capital One Orange Bowl:
No. 6 Ohio State (12-2) vs. No. 2 Georgia (13-2)
This would have been a wild matchup that we didn’t get to see, with a lot of defensive talent on the field for both sides. In the end, though, Ohio State clearly had the better offense.
No. 2 seed Georgia Bulldogs (13-2; AP/Coaches #2): SEC Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @ #3 Texas, #7 Tennessee, vs. #3 Texas, vs. #7 Tennessee
Losses: @ #11 Alabama, @ # 14 Ole Miss
Head Coach: Kirby Smart (9th season)
Offensive Style: Pro spread
Quarterback: Carson Beck
Running Backs: Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier
Wide Receivers: Colbie Young and Dominic Lovett
Tight End: Lawson Luckie
No. 6 seed Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2; AP #6; Coaches #7): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @ #4 Penn State, #8 Indiana, #11 Alabama, vs. #3 Texas
Losses: @ #1 Oregon, RV Michigan
Head Coach: Ryan Day (6th season)
Offensive Style: Spread option
Quarterback: Will Howard
Running Backs: TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins
Wide Receivers: Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka
Tight End: Gee Scott Jr.
Final Score: Ohio State 27, Georgia 23
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, Florida
Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025 – 7:30 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 59
Wind: NNE 7 mph
Player of the Game: Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) — In a College Football Playoff semifinal that delivered on every promise of drama, No. 6 Ohio State clawed its way back from a nine-point second-half deficit to stun No. 2 Georgia, 27-23, and punch a ticket to the national championship game.
Kicker Jayden Fielding played the hero, drilling a 37-yard field goal with 1:27 remaining, then sealing the game with a 40-yarder as time expired. His poise under pressure sent the Buckeyes (13-2) back to the title game for the first time since 2020.
Georgia (13-3) held a 23-14 lead early in the fourth quarter after Peyton Woodring’s third field goal of the game. But Ohio State, led by TreVeyon Henderson’s dual-threat performance (62 rushing yards, 2 total TDs), surged late.
Henderson’s 1-yard score cut the lead to two and a defensive stand gave the Buckeyes the ball back with less than two minutes to play.
Quarterback Will Howard, despite three interceptions, made key throws in crunch time, finishing 21-of-30 for 256 yards and two scores, including a first-half strike to Emeka Egbuka and a second to Henderson. Howard’s resilience was matched by a stifling defensive effort that sacked Georgia’s Carson Beck five times and held the Bulldogs to just 18 rushing yards.
Georgia struck early behind Beck (23 of 47, 282 yards, 2 TDs), including touchdowns to Colbie Young and Dominic Lovett. But the Bulldogs’ offense sputtered late, converting just 4 of 18 third downs and twice failing on key fourth downs.
Ohio State’s defense, anchored by Tyleik Williams and JT Tuimoloau, dominated the trenches, limiting Georgia’s run game and harassing Beck throughout.
The win avenges 2022’s semifinal heartbreak loss to Georgia (42-41 in the Peach Bowl) for Ohio State and sets up a blockbuster national championship matchup between the Buckeyes and Notre Dame — a battle of blue bloods with everything on the line.
Tomorrow’s National Championship Game
To make these posts more fun and interactive, please vote for who you think would win each matchup! I can’t promise to take the votes into account because of the simulation process I use, but it will be interesting to see and discuss the results, plus they may serve as a sort of a tiebreaker if I end up needing one. (And yes, I know we already know some of these outcomes from the actual playoff. It will be interesting to see if the simulator agrees.)
BracketCat’s Protest Playoff Archives
2024: Kickoff | Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8
2008: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data
2007: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2006: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2005: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2004: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data
2003: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2002: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2001: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2000: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data | Encore
1999: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data | Encore
1998: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data | Encore