In which BracketCat simulates third-round bowl results for the 16-team playoff bracket for 2023.
One semifinal features a familiar set of opponents in a familiar setting, while the other sees an entirely new matchup between two traditional powers who have actually never played.
Scroll on to see who could have advanced to the 2023-24 national championship game!
(One note on bowl selection: Seeds have priority order for the bowl closest to their home campus, so normally Michigan would get Sugar and Washington gets Rose. However, the surprise advancement of LSU triggers a little-known clause in my playoff system’s fine print that prevents a No. 1 seed from facing a true road game in a semifinal. So, they switched.)
Today’s Games
2024 Rose Bowl presented by Prudential:
No. 13 LSU (11-3) vs. No. 1 Michigan (15-0)
Fun fact: LSU and Michigan have never played in football. That seems like an oversight the 16-team playoff is perfect for rectifying. That said, you were all right about the final outcome.
No. 1 seed Michigan Wolverines (15-0; AP/Coaches #1): Big Ten Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @ #10 Penn State, #7 Ohio State, #16 Liberty, vs. #9 Missouri
Losses: none
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (9th and final season)
Offensive Style: Pro spread
Quarterback: J.J. McCarthy
Running Backs: Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards
Wide Receivers: Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson
Tight End: Colston Loveland
No. 13 seed LSU Tigers (11-3; AP/Coaches #13): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @ #9 Missouri, @ #4 Alabama, vs. #5 Florida State
Losses: vs. #5 Florida State, @ #11 Ole Miss, @ #4 Alabama
Head Coach: Brian Kelly (2nd season)
Offensive Style: Multiple
Quarterback: Jayden Daniels
Running Backs: Logan Diggs and Trey Holly
Wide Receivers: Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.
Tight End: Mason Taylor
Final Score: Michigan 31, LSU 28
(True Result: Michigan 27, Alabama 20 [OT])
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California
Saturday, Jan. 6, 2024 – 2 PM PST / 5 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 66
Wind: N 1 MPH
Player of the Game: Michigan RB Blake Corum
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Blake Corum powered in Saturday for his second touchdown with 7:01 remaining and No. 1 Michigan held off a furious late charge from No. 13 LSU to win a back-and-forth Rose Bowl thriller 31-28 and punch its ticket to the CFP National Championship.
Corum’s 6-yard scoring run capped a methodical Michigan second-half comeback after trailing LSU 21-14 late in the second quarter. He finished with 63 rushing yards and two touchdowns, adding 37 yards through the air to earn Player of the Game honors.
J.J. McCarthy threw for 300 yards and a touchdown, while backup quarterback Jack Tuttle completed all three of his passes to help keep the chains moving during critical stretches.
The Wolverines (16-0) were outgained by LSU 477-435 but leaned on nine third-down conversions and a 32:16 edge in time of possession to control the offensive tempo.
LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels dazzled at times, throwing for 330 yards and two touchdowns, but three costly interceptions — including two in Michigan territory — swung momentum sharply in the second half. Logan Diggs scored twice on the ground for LSU, including a 10-yard touchdown with 2:46 left to bring the Tigers (11-4) to within three.
Michigan’s defense clamped down on LSU’s final drive, forcing a turnover on downs near midfield. The Wolverines ran out the clock to seal their long-awaited return to the title game, advancing to face the winner of Texas-Washington for the national championship.
2024 Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Texas (14-1) vs. No. 2 Washington (15-0)
This one seems familiar. We get the actual Sugar Bowl matchup in the same bowl setting. Once again, despite 40% of you wanting to argue with history, the sim matches reality.
No. 2 seed Washington Huskies (15-0; AP/Coaches #2): Pac-12 Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @ #14 Arizona, #8 Oregon (x2), #15 Louisville, vs. #7 Ohio State
Losses: none
Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer (2nd season)
Offensive Style: Spread
Quarterback: Michael Penix Jr.
Running Backs: Dillon Johnson and Will Nixon
Wide Receivers: Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk
Tight End: Jack Westover
No. 3 seed Texas Longhorns (14-1; AP #3; Coaches #4): Big 12 Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @ #4 Alabama, vs. #20 Oklahoma State, #14 Arizona, vs. #6 Georgia
Loss: vs. #12 Oklahoma
Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian (3rd season)
Offensive Style: Spread
Quarterback: Quinn Ewers
Running Backs: Jonathon Brooks and CJ Baxter
Wide Receivers: Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell
Tight End: Ja’Tavion Sanders
Final Score: Washington 44, Texas 13
(True Result: Washington 37, Texas 31)
Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, Louisiana
Friday, Jan. 5, 2024 – 7:45 PM CST / 8:45 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 72
Wind: None (indoor stadium)
Player of the Game: Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Michael Penix Jr. carved up the opposing defense for 413 yards and five touchdowns as No. 2 Washington surged past No. 3 Texas 44-13 in a dominant Sugar Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal performance Friday night.
Penix, the Heisman runner-up, completed 30 of 47 passes without a turnover, slicing through a Longhorns secondary that never found its footing against him.
He threw two touchdown passes each to Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan, and added a fifth to Rashid Williams just before halftime to give Washington a 28-10 lead at the break.
Odunze finished with 133 yards on six catches, continuing his stellar postseason, while running back Dillon Johnson added 152 rushing yards on 25 carries to help the Huskies (16-0) to control the clock and stay balanced in their attack.
Texas (14-2), which had impressed with its physicality in the quarterfinal win over Georgia, was outmatched at the line of scrimmage against this opponent. Quinn Ewers passed for 372 yards and a score, but the Longhorns managed just 19 rushing yards and were sacked six times. Their only touchdown came on a second-quarter toss to Isaiah Neyor.
Washington’s defense bent at times but didn’t break, limiting Texas to just three points in the second half and forcing a critical second-quarter interception to swing the momentum.
With the win, the Huskies advance to their first national championship game of the College Football Playoff era, where they’ll face No. 1 Michigan in a clash of unbeaten titans.
Tomorrow’s National Championship Game
To make these posts more fun and interactive, please vote for who you think would win each matchup! I can’t promise to take the votes into account because of the simulation process I use, but it will be interesting to see and discuss the results, plus they may serve as a sort of a tiebreaker if I end up needing one. (And yes, I know we already know this outcome from the actual 2023 playoff. It will be interesting to see if the simulator agrees.)
BracketCat’s Protest Playoff Archives
2024: Kickoff | Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | NC | Data
2023: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8
2008: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data
2007: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2006: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2005: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2004: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data
2003: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2002: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2001: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2000: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data | Encore
1999: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data | Encore
1998: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data | Encore