In which BracketCat simulates third-round bowl results for the 16-team playoff bracket for 2022.
It’s interesting how we keep adding all these other teams, yet we mostly end up with the same Final Four teams each year (with the exception of welfare recipient 2023 Alabama).
Juggernaut Georgia seems likely to advance, but can TCU replicate their Fiesta Bowl upset?
Scroll on to see who could have advanced to the 2022-23 national championship game!
(One note on bowl selection: Seeds have priority order for the bowl closest to their home campus, so Georgia would get the Peach and Michigan gets shipped off to the Fiesta.)
Today’s Games
2022 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 4 Ohio State (13-1) vs. No. 1 Georgia (15-0)
Not quite the thrilling, last-minute, field goal-decided outcome we actually saw.
No. 1 seed Georgia Bulldogs (15-0; AP/Coaches #1): SEC Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): vs. #15 Oregon, @ #19 South Carolina, #6 Tennessee, @ #22 Mississippi State, vs. #17 LSU, #16 Tulane, vs. #9 Kansas State
Losses: none
Head Coach: Kirby Smart (7th season)
Offensive Style: Pro spread
Quarterback: Stetson Bennett
Running Backs: Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards
Wide Receivers: Ladd McConkey and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint
Tight End: Darnell Washington
No. 4 seed Ohio State Buckeyes (13-1; AP #4; Coaches #3): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): #21 Notre Dame, @ #11 Penn State, #13 Florida State, vs. #5 Alabama
Loss: #2 Michigan
Head Coach: Ryan Day (4th season)
Offensive Style: West Coast spread
Quarterback: C.J. Stroud
Running Backs: Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson
Wide Receivers: Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka
Tight End: Cade Stover
Final Score: Georgia 45, Ohio State 23
(True Result: Georgia 42, Ohio State 41)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Georgia
Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023 – 8 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 72
Wind: None (indoor stadium)
Player of the Game: Georgia QB Stetson Bennett
ATLANTA (AP) — The defending champs are headed back to the big stage.
Quarterback Stetson Bennett delivered a near-flawless performance, throwing four touchdown passes as No. 1 Georgia pulled away from No. 4 Ohio State with a 31-7 second-half run to secure a 45-23 victory Saturday night in the Peach Bowl CFP semifinal.
Georgia (16-0) trailed 16-14 late in the second quarter but took control with back-to-back touchdown drives bookending halftime. Bennett found Kenny McIntosh for a 47-yard score early in the third, then Daijun Edwards punched in a 1-yard touchdown to make it 35-16.
The knockout punch came seconds into the fourth quarter, when Kendall Milton exploded for a 70-yard touchdown run that pushed the lead to 42-16. The Bulldogs rushed for 220 yards on just 36 carries, averaging a whopping 6.1 yards per attempt.
Ohio State (13-2) started fast, with C.J. Stroud throwing a pair of first-half touchdown passes and racking up 385 yards through the air.
Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka combined for 177 receiving yards, but the Buckeyes’ inability to finish drives and settling for three short field goals proved costly.
Georgia’s defense, which bent early but stiffened late, recorded two sacks and an interception while holding the Buckeyes to just 62 rushing yards.
Bennett, named Player of the Game, finished 18 of 30 for 268 yards and four scores, spreading the ball around to eight different receivers.
With the win, Georgia returns to the national title game and awaits the winner of the Fiesta Bowl semifinal between Michigan and TCU.
2022 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 TCU (14-1) vs. No. 2 Michigan (15-0)
This one, on the other hand, was every bit as thrilling as the real-life matchup! Once again, despite 40% of you wanting to argue with history, the sim matches reality.
No. 2 seed Michigan Wolverines (15-0; AP/Coaches #2): Big Ten Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): #11 Penn State, @ #4 Ohio State, #15 Oregon, vs. #10 USC
Losses: none
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (8th season)
Offensive Style: Pro spread
Quarterback: J.J. McCarthy
Running Backs: Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards
Wide Receivers: Cornelius Johnson and Ronnie Bell
Tight End: Luke Schoonmaker
No. 3 seed TCU Horned Frogs (14-1; AP #3; Coaches #4): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): #9 Kansas State, @ #20 Texas, #14 Oregon State, vs. #6 Tennessee
Loss: vs. #9 Kansas State
Head Coach: Sonny Dykes (1st season)
Offensive Style: Air raid
Quarterback: Max Duggan
Running Backs: Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado
Wide Receivers: Taye Barber and Quentin Johnston
Tight End: Jared Wiley
Final Score: TCU 42, Michigan 41
(True Result: TCU 51, Michigan 45)
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, Arizona
Monday, Jan. 9, 2023 – 2 PM MST / 4 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 78
Wind: None (indoor stadium)
Player of the Game: TCU QB Max Duggan
PHOENIX (AP) — In a semifinal for the ages, Max Duggan and the TCU Horned Frogs pulled off one of the greatest comebacks in College Football Playoff history on Monday.
Trailing by 28 points late in the first half, No. 3 TCU stormed back with 29 unanswered points and held off a furious final push from No. 2 Michigan to win 42-41 in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal thriller.
Down 41-13 with less than two minutes to go in the first half, TCU (15-1) found life when Duggan connected with Taye Barber for a 15-yard touchdown just before halftime. From there, the Frogs’ defense stiffened, their special teams delivered and Duggan went to work.
Griffin Kell drilled five field goals, including back-to-back kicks in the third quarter, to slowly chip away at the deficit. Duggan then led a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown drives, capping the comeback with a 19-yard strike to Barber with 1:10 left. Though the 2-point try failed, TCU’s defense stopped Michigan’s final possession to preserve the one-point win.
Duggan, named the Player of the Game, finished 28 of 45 for 384 yards and three touchdowns. Barber hauled in six passes for 119 yards and two scores. Emari Demercado added a critical 44-yard touchdown reception in the first quarter.
For Michigan (15-1), quarterback J.J. McCarthy passed for 278 yards and three scores, while Blake Corum rushed for 157 yards and two touchdowns. The Wolverines outscored TCU 28-10 in the second quarter but were shut out during the final 30 minutes.
The Horned Frogs now advance to face defending champion Georgia in the national title game — a matchup few predicted, but many will watch.
Tomorrow’s National Championship Game
To make these posts more fun and interactive, please vote for who you think would win each matchup! I can’t promise to take the votes into account because of the simulation process I use, but it will be interesting to see and discuss the results, plus they may serve as a sort of a tiebreaker if I end up needing one. (And yes, I know we already know this outcome from the actual 2022 playoff. It will be interesting to see if the simulator agrees.)
BracketCat’s Protest Playoff Archives
2024: Kickoff | Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | NC | Data
2023: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | NC | Data
2022: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8
2008: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange
2007: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2006: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2005: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2004: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data
2003: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2002: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2001: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2000: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data | Encore
1999: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data | Encore
1998: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data | Encore