In which BracketCat simulates second-round bowl results for the 16-team playoff bracket for 2022.
This one was worth the extra wait!
The second round features four new combinations of eight of the teams who played in New Year’s Six/CFP bowl games in 2022, meaning some of those bowl game winners are now losers and vice versa. So scroll on to see who could advance to the Final Four of 2022-23…
(One note on bowl selection: Seeds have priority order for the bowl closest to their home campus, so Georgia gets Orange, then Michigan the Sugar — although the Wolverines elected to go further for a traditional Rose Bowl instead — then TCU the Cotton, and so on.)
Today’s Games
2022 Capital One Orange Bowl:
No. 9 Kansas State (11-3) vs. No. 1 Georgia (14-0)
This Orange Bowl arguably could have been K-State’s most important game in its entire football history. Although 80% of you homers picked the Cats, the simulation knew better.
No. 1 seed Georgia Bulldogs (14-0; AP/Coaches #1): SEC Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): vs. #15 Oregon, @ #19 South Carolina, #6 Tennessee, @ #22 Mississippi State, vs. #17 LSU, #16 Tulane
Losses: none
Head Coach: Kirby Smart (7th season)
Offensive Style: Pro spread
Quarterback: Stetson Bennett
Running Backs: Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards
Wide Receivers: Ladd McConkey and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint
Tight End: Darnell Washington
No. 9 seed Kansas State Wildcats (11-3; AP #11; Coaches #9): Big 12 Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): Texas Tech (8-5), Oklahoma State (7-6), vs. #3 TCU, @ #8 Utah
Losses: #16 Tulane, @ #3 TCU, #20 Texas
Head Coach: Chris Klieman (4th season)
Offensive Style: Multiple
Quarterback: Will Howard
Running Backs: Deuce Vaughn and DJ Giddens
Wide Receivers: Malik Knowles and Phillip Brooks
Tight End: Ben Sinnott
Final Score: Georgia 32, Kansas State 17
(True Result: Tennessee 31, Clemson 14)
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, Florida
Friday, Dec. 30, 2022 – 8 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 72
Wind: None (indoor stadium)
Player of the Game: Georgia QB Stetson Bennett
MIAMI (AP) — Stetson Bennett threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns as No. 1 Georgia’s defense smothered No. 11 K-State’s run game, sending the defending national champions into the College Football Playoff semifinals with a 32-17 win Friday in the Orange Bowl.
The top-seeded Bulldogs (15-0) used a dominant third quarter — scoring a touchdown, a safety and a field goal — to create separation from the scrappy Wildcats, who trailed by just four at halftime. Georgia now advances to face the winner of the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal between Alabama and Ohio State.
Bennett completed 25 of 43 passes, connecting with Kenny McIntosh and Jackson Meeks for scores. Daijun Edwards added a 35-yard touchdown run late to seal the game and finished with 78 rushing yards on 13 carries.
Kansas State (11-4) relied heavily on kicker Ty Zentner, who nailed three field goals to keep the Wildcats within reach. But Georgia’s defensive front overwhelmed Will Howard and stifled star running back Deuce Vaughn, limiting him to just 62 yards on 24 carries.
The Wildcats were held to 1.4 yards per rush and converted only 3 of 16 third downs.
While Georgia’s balanced offense gradually wore down the K-State 3-3-5 defense, it was the Dawgs’ defense that made the difference. Jalen Carter and Jamon Dumas-Johnson each notched two sacks, part of a six-sack effort that constantly disrupted Howard’s rhythm.
Georgia now will seek to continue its title defense in the CFP Peach Bowl semifinal, showing the same blend of poise, power and playoff experience that won it all last season.
2023 Rose Bowl presented by Prudential:
No. 10 USC (12-2) vs. No. 2 Michigan (14-0)
A classic Rose Bowl matchup and unexpectedly de facto home game for the Pac-12 underdog results in victory for the Big Ten champion, as 80% of you correctly predicted.
No. 2 seed Michigan Wolverines (14-0; AP/Coaches #2): Big Ten Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @Iowa (8-5), #11 Penn State, @ #4 Ohio State, #15 Oregon
Losses: none
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (8th season)
Offensive Style: Pro spread
Quarterback: J.J. McCarthy
Running Backs: Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards
Wide Receivers: Cornelius Johnson and Ronnie Bell
Tight End: Luke Schoonmaker
No. 10 seed USC Trojans (12-2; AP/Coaches #8): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @ #14 Oregon State, @ #18 UCLA, #21 Notre Dame, @ #7 Clemson
Losses: @ #8 Utah, vs. #8 Utah
Head Coach: Lincoln Riley (1st season)
Offensive Style: Air raid
Quarterback: Caleb Williams
Running Backs: Travis Dye and Austin Jones
Wide Receivers: Jordan Addison and Brenden Rice
Tight End: Lake McRee
Final Score: Michigan 37, USC 21
(True Result: Penn State 35, Utah 21)
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California
Monday, Jan. 1, 2023 – 2 PM PST / 5 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 61
Wind: W 24 MPH, gusting to 30 MPH
Player of the Game: Michigan RB Donovan Edwards
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Behind a second-half ground assault led by Donovan Edwards and a ferocious defensive effort, No. 2 Michigan pulled away from No. 8 USC for a 37-21 victory in the Rose Bowl on Monday, punching their ticket to the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Edwards exploded for 137 yards on just nine carries, including back-to-back touchdown runs of 41 and 65 yards that broke the game open in the fourth quarter.
He was named Player of the Game after providing the spark Michigan (15-0) needed to break free from a tight first half.
USC (12-3) struck first behind Caleb Williams’ 4-yard touchdown to Brenden Rice, but Michigan’s defense held the Trojans to just a field goal over the next two quarters while the Wolverines built a 30-13 lead. Blake Corum added 97 rushing yards and a touchdown as Michigan rolled up 237 yards on the ground.
The Wolverines’ defense frustrated Williams all game, sacking him three times and intercepting him twice, one each by DJ Turner and Michael Barrett.
Michigan also held USC to just 64 rushing yards and 4 of 16 on third downs.
While Williams passed for 303 yards and two scores, the Trojans’ offense couldn’t find their rhythm against a physical and disciplined Michigan defense.
A late touchdown pass to Jordan Addison and a two-point conversion gave USC a flicker of hope, but the outcome had long been sealed.
With the win, Michigan advances to the CFP Fiesta Bowl semifinal to play the winner of TCU vs. Tennessee.
2023 Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic:
No. 6 Tennessee (11-2) vs. No. 3 TCU (13-1)
TCU returns to the site of its Big 12 Championship disappointment for a second chance at redemption in front of a Hypnotoad home crowd. All of you voting correctly predicted this.
No. 3 seed TCU Horned Frogs (13-1; AP #3; Coaches #4): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): #9 Kansas State, Texas Tech (8-5), @ #20 Texas, #14 Oregon State
Loss: vs. #9 Kansas State
Head Coach: Sonny Dykes (1st season)
Offensive Style: Air raid
Quarterback: Max Duggan
Running Backs: Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado
Wide Receivers: Taye Barber and Quentin Johnston
Tight End: Jared Wiley
No. 6 seed Tennessee Volunteers (11-2; AP/Coaches #6): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @Pittsburgh (9-4), @ #17 LSU, #5 Alabama, #11 Penn State
Losses: @ #1 Georgia, @ #19 South Carolina
Head Coach: Josh Heupel (2nd season)
Offensive Style: Spread/RPO
Quarterback: Hendon Hooker
Running Backs: Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small
Wide Receivers: Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman
Tight End: Princeton Fant
Final Score: TCU 38, Tennessee 27
(True Result: Tulane 46, USC 45)
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
Monday, Jan. 2, 2023 – 12 PM CST / 1 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 72
Wind: None (indoor stadium)
Player of the Game: TCU QB Max Duggan
DALLAS (AP) — No. 3 TCU used an explosive first quarter and a nearly flawless performance from Max Duggan to surge past No. 6 Tennessee 38-27 on Monday in the Cotton Bowl quarterfinal, earning a spot in the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Duggan, the game’s MVP, threw for 360 yards and four touchdowns, engineering a 21-point first quarter that set the tone for a game in which the Horned Frogs (14-1) never trailed.
He connected with four different receivers for scores, spreading the ball to a deep receiving corps that overwhelmed the Volunteers’ secondary.
Tennessee (11-3) tried to keep pace behind quarterback Hendon Hooker’s 420 passing yards, with standout Jalin Hyatt hauling in seven catches for 174 yards and 2 touchdowns.
But two costly fumbles and a sluggish start doomed the Vols, who were outgained on the ground and struggled on third down.
TCU’s balanced offensive attack included 106 rushing yards and a touchdown from Kendre Miller and a highlight-reel 40-yard touchdown reception by Emari Demercado.
The Frogs went 8 of 15 on third down, maintaining drives and keeping the Tennessee defense gassed throughout.
Despite late scores from Hyatt and kicker Chase McGrath, the Volunteers couldn’t close the gap, with TCU responding each time to maintain its double-digit lead. A late field goal from Griffin Kell sealed the win.
TCU now advances to face Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal as the Horned Frogs continue their magical season in a quest for a national championship.
2022 Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 5 Alabama (11-2) vs. No. 4 Ohio State (12-1)
A vintage blueblood matchup that we’ve seen a few times before in playoff games results in a much less favorable Sugar Bowl outcome for Alabama, as all of you correctly predicted.
No. 4 seed Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1; AP #4; Coaches #3): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): #21 Notre Dame, @ #11 Penn State, @Maryland (8-5), #13 Florida State
Loss: #2 Michigan
Head Coach: Ryan Day (4th season)
Offensive Style: West Coast spread
Quarterback: C.J. Stroud
Running Backs: Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson
Wide Receivers: Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka
Tight End: Cade Stover
No. 5 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (11-2; AP/Coaches #5): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @#20 Texas, #22 Mississippi State, @Ole Miss (8-5), #12 Washington
Losses: @#6 Tennessee, @#17 LSU
Head Coach: Nick Saban (16th season)
Offensive Style: Pro spread
Quarterback: Bryce Young
Running Backs: Jahmyr Gibbs and Jase McClellan
Wide Receivers: Traeshon Holden and Kobe Prentice
Tight End: Cameron Latu
Final Score: Ohio State 28, Alabama 24
(True Result: Alabama 45, Kansas State 20)
Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, Louisiana
Saturday, Dec. 31, 2022 – 11 AM CST / 12 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 72
Wind: None (indoor stadium)
Player of the Game: Ohio State RB Miyan Williams
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — In a classic Sugar Bowl clash loaded with future NFL talent, No. 4 Ohio State stormed back from an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit, behind a pair of clutch touchdown runs from Miyan Williams, to knock off No. 5 Alabama 28-24 and advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Williams, named Player of the Game for his scoring efforts, delivered the decisive blow with a 56-yard touchdown run with 5:37 left, capping a 101-yard, two-touchdown performance.
His burst down the right sideline completed a 15-point rally that saw the Buckeyes (13-1) outscore the Crimson Tide 15-3 in the final frame.
Alabama (11-3) had controlled the pace for much of the night, with Bryce Young throwing for 337 yards and two touchdowns.
But the Tide were undone by missed opportunities, including settling for a long fourth-quarter field goal and a late turnover on downs after OSU took the lead.
Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud managed the game efficiently, throwing for 244 yards and spreading the ball to six receivers, including Emeka Egbuka (six receptions, 87 yards) and Julian Fleming, who added a key two-point conversion that tied the game at 24-24.
Alabama held a 21-13 lead after Jahmyr Gibbs’ 18-yard touchdown run in the third quarter and led 24-13 early in the fourth, following a 50-yard Will Reichard field goal. But the Buckeyes’ defense stiffened and the offense responded with two long scoring drives.
The win sends Ohio State into the Peach Bowl semifinal, where they’ll face Georgia in a difficult road environment. For Alabama, it’s a bitter end to a season that once again saw them just short of another title shot.
Tomorrow’s Games
To make these posts more fun and interactive, please vote for who you think would win each matchup! I can’t promise to take the votes into account because of the simulation process I use, but it will be interesting to see and discuss the results, plus they may serve as a sort of a tiebreaker if I end up needing one. (And yes, I know we already know both of these outcomes from the actual playoff. It will be interesting to see if the simulator agrees.)
BracketCat’s Protest Playoff Archives
2024: Kickoff | Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | NC | Data
2023: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | NC | Data
2022: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2)
2008: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange
2007: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2006: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2005: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2004: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data
2003: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2002: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2001: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2000: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data | Encore
1999: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data | Encore
1998: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data | Encore