In which BracketCat simulates third-round bowl results for the 16-team playoff bracket for 2021.
It’s interesting how we keep adding all these other teams, yet we mostly end up with the same Final Four teams each year (with the exception of welfare recipient 2023 Alabama).
Juggernauts Alabama and Georgia seem likely to advance again, but can either Cincinnati or Michigan pull off a counterfactual upset? Scroll down to see how these games turn out!
(One note on bowl selection: Seeds have priority order for the bowl closest to their home campus, so Alabama would get the Cotton and Georgia gets sent south to the Orange.)
Today’s Games
2021 Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic:
No. 1 Alabama (14-1) vs. No. 4 Cincinnati (15-0)
The same Cotton Bowl matchup occurs. No matter when or where, though, the same result seems fated, as 75% of you predicted in the poll. At least Cincinnati put up more of a fight.
No. 1 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (14-1; AP/Coaches #1): SEC Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): #8 Ole Miss, #21 Arkansas, vs. #3 Georgia, #16 Oklahoma, vs. #9 Oklahoma State
Loss: @ #25 Texas A&M
Head Coach: Nick Saban (15th season)
Offensive Style: Pro spread
Quarterback: Bryce Young
Running Backs: Brian Robinson Jr. and Jase McClellan
Wide Receivers: John Metchie III and Jameson Williams
Tight End: Cameron Latu
No. 4 seed Cincinnati Bearcats (15-0; AP/Coaches #4): AAC Champion (G5 auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @ #5 Notre Dame, #20 Houston, #13 BYU, vs. #12 Pittsburgh
Losses: none
Head Coach: Luke Fickell (5th season)
Offensive Style: Multiple
Quarterback: Desmond Ridder
Running Backs: Jerome Ford and Ryan Montgomery
Wide Receivers: Tre Tucker and Tyler Scott
Tight End: Josh Whyle
Final Score: Alabama 41, Cincinnati 28
(True Result: Alabama 27, Cincinnati 6)
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
Saturday, Jan. 8, 2022 – 2:30 PM CST / 3:30 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 72
Wind: None (indoor stadium)
Player of the Game: Alabama QB Bryce Young
DALLAS (AP) — Heisman winner Bryce Young was nearly flawless Saturday, being named Player of the Game after throwing for 460 yards and five touchdowns to lead No. 1 Alabama past scrappy Cincinnati 41-28 and into the College Football Playoff National Championship.
In a high-octane Cotton Bowl semifinal, the Crimson Tide (15-1) put up 33 first downs and nearly 500 yards through the air. Young completed 33 of 42 passes, spreading the ball to seven receivers, with John Metchie III and Slade Bolden each catching pivotal touchdowns.
But No. 4 Cincinnati (15-1), the Group of Five’s playoff representative out of the American Athletic Conference, refused to back down.
The Bearcats matched Alabama’s early punches, including a lightning 67-yard touchdown run by Jerome Ford and a precision touchdown pass to Alec Pierce to keep the game tied at 14 midway through the second quarter.
Alabama’s offensive efficiency and overwhelming time of possession (37:39) gradually wore down the Bearcats, however. Metchie caught two red zone touchdowns and Will Reichard drilled two long field goals to keep the Tide comfortably ahead despite spirited pushes from Desmond Ridder, who tallied 231 passing yards and two scores.
The Alabama defense held Cincinnati to just 16 completions and dominated the line of scrimmage, notching seven sacks — two each from Henry To’o To’o and Will Anderson Jr. — to keep Ridder under pressure all game. Now the Crimson Tide will be vying for their second consecutive national championship, against the winner of Gerogia and Michigan.
2021 Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 3 Georgia (14-1) vs. No. 2 Michigan (14-1)
This one, on the other hand, was every bit as lopsided as the real-life matchup. Once again, despite 25% of you wanting to argue with history, the simulation matches reality.
No. 2 seed Michigan Wolverines (14-1; AP/Coaches #2): Big Ten Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): #6 Ohio State, vs. #15 Iowa, #15 Iowa, vs. #7 Baylor
Loss: @ #10 Michigan State
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (7th season)
Offensive Style: Pro spread
Quarterback: Cade McNamara
Running Backs: Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum
Wide Receivers: Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson
Tight End: Erick All
No. 3 seed Georgia Bulldogs (14-1; AP/Coaches #3): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): vs. #19 Clemson, #21 Arkansas, #22 Kentucky, #14 Oregon, vs. #6 Ohio State
Loss: vs. #1 Alabama
Head Coach: Kirby Smart (6th season)
Offensive Style: Pro spread
Quarterback: Stetson Bennett
Running Backs: James Cook and Zamir White
Wide Receivers: Jermaine Burton and Ladd McConkey
Tight End: Brock Bowers
Final Score: Georgia 48, Michigan 27
(True Result: Georgia 34, Michigan 11)
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, Florida
Saturday, Jan. 8, 2022 – 7:30 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 74
Wind: ENE 7 mph
Player of the Game: Georgia RB Zamir White
MIAMI (AP) — No. 3 Georgia stormed into the College Football Playoff National Championship behind a relentless ground attack and a barrage of big plays Saturday night, defeating No. 2 Michigan 48-27 in a commanding Orange Bowl semifinal performance.
Running back Zamir White earned Player of the Game honors after racking up 153 yards and two touchdowns, including a 62-yard backbreaker late in the second quarter that helped the Bulldogs (15-1) to build a 17-point halftime lead. Fellow back James Cook added 130 yards as part of Georgia’s 311-yard rushing onslaught, averaging nearly 7 yards per carry.
Quarterback Stetson Bennett delivered again on the big stage, throwing for 269 yards and four touchdowns, connecting with Adonai Mitchell, George Pickens, Jermaine Burton and Darnell Washington on his scoring strikes.
Georgia’s offense piled up 700 total yards, controlled the clock (34:25), and converted 13 of 17 third downs, never allowing Michigan to seize the momentum.
Despite the loss, the Wolverines (14-2) showed flashes of brilliance. A trick-play touchdown pass from backup Dan Villari to Ronnie Bell kept things interesting early and Hassan Haskins broke free for a 58-yard touchdown run in the final period.
But the Wolverines couldn’t overcome Georgia’s physicality on both sides of the ball, especially as three Michigan drives ended in interceptions.
The Bulldogs now advance to the national championship, where they’ll meet a familiar foe — No. 1 Alabama — in a rematch of the SEC title game the Crimson Tide won in an upset.
Tomorrow’s National Championship Game
To make these posts more fun and interactive, please vote for who you think would win each matchup! I can’t promise to take the votes into account because of the simulation process I use, but it will be interesting to see and discuss the results, plus they may serve as a sort of a tiebreaker if I end up needing one. (And yes, I know we already know this outcome from the actual 2021 playoff. It will be interesting to see if the simulator agrees.)
BracketCat’s Protest Playoff Archives
2024: Kickoff | Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | NC | Data
2023: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | NC | Data
2022: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | NC | Data
2021: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8
2008: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange
2007: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2006: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2005: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2004: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data
2003: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2002: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2001: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2000: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data | Encore
1999: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data | Encore
1998: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data | Encore