In which BracketCat simulates third-round bowl results for the 16-team playoff bracket for 2019.
Initially, I was struck by how we added all these other teams, yet mostly ended up with the same Final Four teams each year (with the exception of welfare recipient 2023 Alabama).
But this is the second playoff in a row with a surprise Final Four entrant (after No. 6 seed Oklahoma in 2020). Will this version of Alabama be the first to wreck the title pairing?
Scroll on to see who could have advanced to the 2019-20 national championship game!
(One note on bowl selection: Seeds have priority order for the bowl closest to their home campus, so LSU would get the Peach and Ohio State gets shipped off to the Fiesta.)
Today’s Games
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the 2019 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl:
No. 1 LSU (15-0) vs. No. 13 Alabama (12-2)
Back on Nov. 9, 2019, LSU went to Tuscaloosa and won a 46-41 thriller, by far their closest result in an otherwise supremely dominant season. That probably should have prepared us for this wild instant thriller. And yet, all of you corrected predicted who’d come out on top.
No. 1 seed LSU Tigers (15-0; AP/BCS/Coaches #1): SEC Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): #9 Florida, #12 Auburn, @ #13 Alabama, vs. #5 Georgia, #17 Memphis, vs. #9 Florida
Losses: none
Head Coach: Ed Orgeron (3rd season)
Offensive Style: Pro spread
Quarterback: Joe Burrow
Running Backs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Chris Curry
Wide Receivers: Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase
Tight End: Thaddeus Moss
No. 13 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (12-2; AP/Coaches #9; BCS #11): at-large bid
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @Texas A&M (8-5), Tennessee (8-5), @ #4 Oklahoma, vs. #5 Georgia
Losses: #1 LSU, @ #12 Auburn
Head Coach: Nick Saban (13th season)
Offensive Style: Pro spread
Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa
Running Backs: Najee Harris and Brian Robinson Jr.
Wide Receivers: Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith
Tight End: Miller Forristall
Final Score: LSU 55, Alabama 48 (OT)
(True Result: LSU 63, Oklahoma 28)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Georgia
Saturday, Jan. 11, 2020 – 4 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 72
Wind: None (indoor stadium)
Player of the Game: Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa
ATLANTA (AP) — Joe Burrow threw for 432 yards and three touchdowns Saturday and added a rushing score as No. 1 LSU erased a 17-point second-half deficit to stun No. 9 Alabama 55-48 in overtime in a Peach Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinal instant classic.
The Tigers (16-0) trailed 48-31 entering the fourth quarter but scored 24 unanswered points, including a game-tying 33-yard field goal by Cade York with two seconds left in regulation.
In overtime, Chris Curry capped a methodical drive with a 4-yard touchdown run to give LSU its first lead since early in the second quarter.
Burrow connected with Ja’Marr Chase for two touchdowns and Racey McMath for another, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire erupted for 156 yards and two scores on the ground, including a pivotal 46-yard touchdown run that pulled LSU to within three point late in the fourth.
Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa delivered a record-setting performance in defeat, throwing for 527 yards and six touchdowns without an interception. The Crimson Tide (12-3) looked unstoppable early, scoring six touchdowns in their first eight possessions.
Tagovailoa’s 59-yard strike to Henry Ruggs III as time expired in the first half gave Alabama a 42-31 advantage.
But LSU’s defense stiffened after halftime, holding Alabama scoreless in the fourth quarter and forcing a punt and a fumble in key moments. Meanwhile, the Tigers kept the pressure on, converting 9 of 13 third downs and never once turning the ball over.
With the win, LSU advances to the College Football Playoff National Championship, where the Tigers will face either No. 2 Ohio State or No. 3 Clemson.
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the 2019 PlayStation Fiesta Bowl:
No. 3 Clemson (15-0) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (15-0)
Somehow, these two teams conspired to make this simulation even closer than the real-life matchup! Two straight high-scoring, down-to-the-wire affairs with both losing quarterbacks earning Player of the Game honors? Who could ask for anything more? All of you correctly predicted that history would ultimately repeat itself, though.
No. 2 seed Ohio State Buckeyes (15-0; AP/BCS/Coaches #2): Big Ten Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): #21 Cincinnati, #8 Wisconsin, #10 Penn State, @ #14 Michigan, vs. #8 Wisconsin, #15 Notre Dame, vs. #10 Penn State
Losses: none
Head Coach: Ryan Day (1st season)
Offensive Style: West Coast spread
Quarterback: Justin Fields
Running Backs: J.K. Dobbins and Master Teague III
Wide Receivers: Binjimen Victor and Austin Mack
Tight End: Jeremy Ruckert
No. 3 seed Clemson Tigers (15-0; AP/BCS/Coaches #3): ACC Champion (auto-bid)
Notable Wins (CFP Rankings): @Louisville (8-5), vs. #24 Virginia, #14 Michigan, vs. #6 Oregon
Losses: none
Head Coach: Dabo Swinney (11th full, 12th overall season)
Offensive Style: Spread
Quarterback: Trevor Lawrence
Running Backs: Travis Etienne and Lyn-J Dixon
Wide Receivers: Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross
Tight End: Braden Galloway
Final Score: Clemson 41, Ohio State 38
(True Result: Clemson 29, Ohio State 23)
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, Arizona
Saturday, Jan. 11, 2020 – 6 PM MST / 8 PM EST
Precipitation: None
Temperature: 78
Wind: None (indoor stadium)
Player of the Game: Ohio State QB Justin Fields
PHOENIX (AP) — B.T. Potter drilled a 24-yard field goal as time expired Saturday night and No. 3 Clemson held off a furious rally from No. 2 Ohio State to win a dramatic Fiesta Bowl semifinal, 41-38, and punch a ticket to the College Football Playoff National Championship.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw for 359 yards and two touchdowns and also added a rushing score, guiding Clemson to yet another national championship game appearance.
The Tigers (16-0) held a 35-24 lead late in the third quarter but had to weather a fourth-quarter surge from the Buckeyes (15-1).
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields — who earned Player of the Game honors — threw four touchdown passes, including a game-tying strike to Garrett Wilson with 1:01 remaining, but Clemson answered with a clinical final drive, capped by Potter’s game-winning kick.
Clemson overcame early struggles, trailing 17-7 midway through the second quarter before rattling off three unanswered touchdowns.
A 62-yard scoring pass from Lawrence to Braden Galloway sparked the surge, while Travis Etienne added two rushing touchdowns and 82 yards on the ground.
The Buckeyes relied heavily on J.K. Dobbins, who exploded for 164 rushing yards, including a 60-yard touchdown early in the third quarter that gave Ohio State a brief 24–21 lead.
Wilson hauled in two scores and leading wide receiver Binjimen Victor added another.
Clemson’s defense bent but didn’t break, limiting the Buckeyes to field goals on two late red-zone trips and holding them to just 3 of 6 in red-zone touchdown efficiency.
With the win, Clemson advances to face No. 1 LSU in a battle of unbeaten juggernauts with powerhouse pro spread offenses for the College Football Playoff National Championship.
Tomorrow’s National Championship Game
To make these posts more fun and interactive, please vote for who you think would win each matchup! I can’t promise to take the votes into account because of the simulation process I use, but it will be interesting to see and discuss the results, plus they may serve as a sort of a tiebreaker if I end up needing one. (And yes, I know we already know this outcome from the actual 2019 playoff. It will be interesting to see if the simulator agrees.)
BracketCat’s Protest Playoff Archives
2024: Kickoff | Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | NC | Data
2023: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | NC | Data
2022: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | NC | Data
2021: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | NC | Data
2020: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | NC | Data
2019: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8
2008: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange
2007: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2006: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2005: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2004: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data
2003: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data
2002: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data
2001: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Rose | Data
2000: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Orange | Data | Encore
1999: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Sugar | Data | Encore
1998: Selection Sunday | Sweet 16 (1) | Sweet 16 (2) | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Fiesta | Data | Encore