Drew takes a preliminary look at the Kansas State offense for the 2025 season.
Consider this my opening statement on the 2025 season:
The Window is Open.
Coach Klieman and company can move Kansas State from the “good, not great” tier of teams to the “national contender” tier in 2025. This sort of opportunity doesn’t come around often for a program like Kansas State, and the Wildcats are in the perfect position to capitalize, but this isn’t a prediction of future success.
I think of it this way: the coaching staff has assembled the parts they need to make the CFP, but they still need to assemble THE MEGA WILDCAT!
Capitalizing on this opportunity all comes down to Avery Johnson’s prodigious talents.
Avery Johnson is a different kind of quarterback than Chris Klieman has trotted out thus far in his Kansas State coaching career. Don’t get me wrong. You can win big at Kansas State with a quarterback like Will Howard. After all, he has a Big 12 Championship on his resume from Kansas State. Will Howard is National Championship-level good when surrounded by Ohio State-level talent. Still, he’s not the type of quarterback capable of elevating Kansas State-level talent to the upper tier of college football. The Big 12 Championship is nothing to sneeze at, but Alabama quickly squashed any notion that the Wildcats were ready to compete nationally. Avery Johnson, in theory, could have that sort of juice.
“In theory” and “could” are key words in the previous sentence. Avery must be almost exponentially better than last season for this to work. Kansas State needs Avery Johnson to have the same season Deshaun Watson (gross) had for Clemson in 2015. Watson (again, I hate that he quarterbacked my favorite college team) threw for 4104 yards and completed 333 of 491 pass attempts (68%), including 35 touchdowns. He also ran for 1105 yards and 12 touchdowns on 207 carries (5.3 YPA). To put that in perspective, Johnson threw for 2712 yards last season and completed 217 of 372 passes (58%), including 25 touchdowns. He also ran for 605 yards and seven touchdowns on 113 attempts. Avery has a long way to go to turn his talent into that level of production.
That Clemson team played at a breakneck pace to give Watson as many possessions as possible. While I don’t expect the K-State to replicate the Tigers’ 80 plays a game after averaging 65 plays a game in 2024, getting the offense above 70 plays a game would be a good start. The offense has the weapons; it is now time for Coach Klieman to up the play volume. That comes with the following caveat. Avery has to be a more accurate passer in 2024.
Here’s my next bold statement for 2025:
If Avery can boost his accuracy by 10% in 2025, Kansas State will win the Big 12 and be a contender in the College Football Playoff.
If Johnson continues to hover around 60%, this team will continue to hover around nine or ten wins. That’s still good college football, but it’s conference-level good, not national-level good. Kansas State might even win the Big 12 with Avery completing 60% of his passes, but they’ll be a quick out in the tournament. If your offense can’t stay on the field, you can’t compete with the college football elite.
Give full credit to Coach Klieman. He knows opportunities like this don’t come around often. He has provided his gunslinging quarterback with the best arsenal of weapons since he arrived in Manhattan, and it’s not particularly close. Not only has the coaching staff brought in solid depth at receiver, running back, and tight end, but they’ve also managed to snag some top-tier talent. They may not be as deep as many nationally relevant teams in terms of top-tier talent, but they can compete at key positions. Starting, as I mentioned above, with Avery Johnson.
If Avery makes the type of jump I expect him to make as a passer. There will be a few teams with a quarterback as good as Avery Johnson, but there won’t be many with a better quarterback. I can say something similar about Dyland Edwards at running back. If the Dylan Edwards we saw put up 198 yards and three total touchdowns against Rutgers is the same Dylan Edwards Kansas State has for all of 2025, there might be a team with a running back as explosive as Dylan Edwards, but you won’t find a team with a more explosive back. You need elite players to win at an elite level, and Avery Johnson and Dylan Edwards both have elite potential.
Edwards is second only to Avery Johnson in terms of importance in the Wildcat attack.
The coaching staff has to figure out how to balance the desire to give their most explosive but diminutive star touches against the wear and tear of leaning on their diminutive star. He must stay healthy for the Wildcats to reach their full potential because he does things other players can’t do. Joe Jackson, who is an explosive back in his own right, is more than capable of shouldering some of the load. I want Dylan to touch the ball 15-20 times a game, but those touches don’t have to come exclusively from the running back position, or at least not as a traditional running back.
I see Edwards as the ultimate Swiss Army knife, not a hammer, and hope he’s used accordingly. If he stays healthy, K-State not only has an elite running back at the top of the depth chart, but they should also have elite depth. You won’t find many teams with a number two option as good as Joe Jackson. That should allow the coaching staff to keep Dylan fresh throughout the game. A tired defense attempting to tackle a fresh Dylan Edwards in the 4th quarter isn’t fair.
That brings me to the receivers and tight ends.
This group needed an upgrade, and the coaching staff spent the time, money, and effort to make it happen. I like the transfer receivers and the returning tight ends. Jerand Bradley is the lanky deep ball receiver the staff has searched for the last few seasons. Jaron Tibbs is a steady performer with the potential to be more. Caleb Medford has an intriguing mix of size and speed. The wide receiver group is significantly better now than it was at any point last season. With that said…
Like Avery Johnson and Dylan Edwards, Lincoln Cure is a different caliber of athlete.
I don’t expect a fast start from Lincoln, but that’s OK. The coaching staff brought in enough good talent to let the elite talent work into the game plan at a reasonable pace. He doesn’t need to set freshman receiving records, and he doesn’t need to be the go-to guy in the offense.
He needs to be a matchup nightmare late in the season.
Coach Wells has to figure out a package of plays that Cure is comfortable with, and he needs to figure out how to incorporate him into the game plan. Maybe that’s as a traditional tight end or flexed out as a jumbo receiver on the outside. Kansas State needs players capable of making plays outside the offense, and Cure, like Edwards, has that ability. He can turn a 5-yard reception into a 30+ yard touchdown at any moment. The Wildcats will need their five-star freshman fully operational by the end of the season if they want to make some national-level noise. If he’s up to speed, another team may have an athlete at Cure’s level at tight end, but no one will have a better athlete than Cure at tight end.
This team has a quarterback with elite potential as a dual threat, a running back with elite speed and change of direction, and a tight end with elite pass-catching and run-after-the-catch potential. Combine that with the returning Jace Brown, who may not be elite, but made some huge catches last season while playing out of position, and this has the potential to be one of the most explosive offenses in the country.
Of course, this depends on the offensive line coming together, but I think K-State has a better chance of hitting this window than most teams. Putting together a stout offensive line is the calling card of this coaching staff. Losing Connor Riley hurts, but it sounds like Brian Lepak was doing a good bit of the on-field coaching last season anyway. Coach Klieman mentioned Lepak’s value to the team almost weekly last season. That gives me confidence moving forward because Klieman is an elite coach evaluator.
Coach Lepack may already be the best recruiter on the staff (he played a key role in landing Lincoln Cure), and his efforts have already paid dividends in the portal. George Fitzpatrick, a 6’5”, 280-pound former four-star star recruit from Ohio State, should step into the open left tackle spot. In addition to Fitzpatrick, they added three massive interior linemen in 6’5”, 330-pound USC transfer Amos Talalele, 6’5”, 320-pound Pitt transfer Terrence Enos, and 6’5”, 330-pound Penn State transfer JB Nelson.
The good news for K-State is that they signed several quality offensive line transfers, but Fitzpatrick might be the only starter in the group. The fewer offensive line transfers, the faster things come together. Barring injury, I would be shocked if the starting offensive line coming out of fall camp didn’t include Fitzpatrick, Poitier, Hecht, and Leingang. That leaves either right guard or right tackle open, depending on where they want to play Leingang (right guard is most likely). My guess is right tackle comes down to either Nelson or returning bench pieces, John Pastore, or Gus Hawkins. With the team in “win now” mode, I lean more towards Nelson’s 31 games played and eight starts, but Pastore and Hawkins have been in the program for multiple years. If you’re looking for a position battle to watch in fall camp, keep your eye on the right side of the offensive line.
Folks, I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that next season may be the most important in the Klieman era.
If this offense comes together like I think it can, this team can compete at the highest level of college football. That doesn’t mean they’ll win, but it means they’ve got a shot to win every game. Winning begets winning in college football. If the Wildcats can pull off a magical run in 2025, the payoff will be both short and long term. In the short term, you can watch some competitive, exciting football. Recruiting high school and transfer players to Kansas State would become exponentially easier in the long term.
A word of advice: if you’ve been looking for an excuse to get back to Manhattan to catch a game, catch a game this season. There is “I was there! I saw it live!” potential in this team. The fun is in the winning, and this team should win a bunch of games.