Can Kansas State get up enough shots to make a run in the Big 12 Tournament?
I’m sure I’m not the only one that’s been frustrated by Kansas State men’s basketball this season. I haven’t had much to say because this team’s problem is so glaringly obvious that it’s almost insulting to point it out, but for the sake of the article… Kansas State doesn’t get up enough shots.
Basketball, at its heart, is simple. The team that puts the ball through the hoop the most wins. Obviously, 3-point shooting, free throws, etc., play a part, but in general, the team that hits the most shots wins. The problem with this Kansas State team on offense isn’t their ability to hit shots (although it can be an ancillary problem).
The problem with this Kansas State team on offense is their ability to take shots.
Turnovers have been the story of the season. Jerome Tang’s first real attempt at installing his style of play has been mixed at best. Last season, he inherited the best passing point guard in the nation, paired him with a former 1st team All-SEC finisher, and surrounded those two with athletes and shooters. Sure, other guys got into the act on offense, but they were mostly finishers, not creators. Markquis created the shots, and everyone else finished them. If the offense stalled out, you could either clear out for Nowell or Keyontae and let them work at the end of the shot clock. That’s easy offense. Everyone has a role to play, and when everyone plays their role, the offense clicks.
That’s not exactly the offense Jerome Tang envisioned when he took over the Kansas State job. Full credit for building the perfect team around the uniquely talented Nowell and getting extremely fortunate with the late addition of Johnson. Coach Tang essentially turned up the speed on traditional 2-man basketball to 11 because Markquis could handle the decision-making at hyper-speed and Johnson was an elite scorer. It took the ‘Cats to the Elite 8.
As we’ve all witnessed, that’s not what Kansas State has this season. Coach Tang has shifted to a more decentralized offense with multiple playmakers. That’s how he won a National Championship without top-level recruiting at Baylor. It’s what landed Coach Tang the job in the first place. The offensive philosophy you witnessed this season has paid huge dividends for Coach in the past, but it’s a tough offense to master.
The idea of a free-flowing, position-less offense sounds great. Just roll the ball out and let the guys play ball. Instead of guys filling set roles, everyone is a dribbler, everyone is a passer, everyone is a screener, and everyone is a shooter. While it looks great on paper and is almost impossible to guard when executed properly, executing this style of play is a challenge, especially at the college level, and when it’s not executed well, it’s ugly, and it’s been ugly on occasion this season.
The Wildcats need to be good this week if they harbor any interest in playing in the NCAA tournament. Previewing the other teams is almost moot. It doesn’t matter how the other teams play. What matters is how Kansas State plays. When they don’t turn it over, share the basketball, and play with energy, they can beat anyone in the Big 12. We’ve seen it in fits and starts. The team that knocked off BYU on February 24th is capable of winning the Big 12 Tournament. The team that lost to Kansas 90-68 would struggle to win the Southland Conference. Truly a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team.
The BYU game is the best example of decentralized basketball I’ve seen out of the Wildcats this season. The four perimeter players made plays both for themselves and their teammates. The ‘Cats finished with 20 assists spread across the board. Perry led the way with 5, but both Kaluma and Dai Dai contributed 4 each. Cam added another 3 assists, and an offense that, on occasion, looks like 5 independent contractors thrown on the court together hummed like a well-oiled machine. Not only did they have 20 assists, but they only committed 13 turnovers. That’s a winning formula for Coach Tang’s group.
You can see the payoff in the stat lines of N’Guessan and McNair. They went a combined 9-14 for 22 points. Post guys shoot a high percentage when their guards make the play and they finish them off. The guards were getting them the ball where they wanted it, and all they had to do was put it through the rim.
Again, that’s easy basketball.
You can also see the payoff in the number of 3’s attempted. When Kansas State is taking good shots, they should get up somewhere between 15-20 3’s. That means they’re taking the 3’s available, and not tossing the ball towards the basket every time the opportunity presents itself. It also cuts down on the number of long rebound runouts opponents use to bypass the Wildcats’ stifling half-court defense.
Kaluma put up an efficient 28 points while going 2 of 3 from deep. Perry, the best shooter on the team, got up his 7 attempts from deep, but most were open 3’s created by the offense instead of Perry creating bad 3’s by calling for the high ball screen and then backing up until he finds enough room to hoist. Carter went 0-3 from deep, but I don’t begrudge him 3 attempts a game. Even Dai Dai got into the act, hitting 1 of his 2 offerings from 3.
Contrast this with the Oklahoma game on January 30th. I’ll be honest, I turned the game off at halftime because it was clear Kansas State had no intention of winning the game. I’m not sure I’ve seen a team with as much talent as Kansas State indiscriminately launch 3’s with little regard for the outcome like the Wildcats did in that game. This team should never attempt 28 3’s. That means they’re taking shots outside the offense. No offense to Carter and Kaluma but neither are great at creating AND HITTING 3’s outside the offense. They went a combined 0-10 from 3. The team only managed 8 assists, turned the ball over 14 times, and got blown off the court in an embarrassing all-around performance.
The Wildcats know the winning formula.
When they share the ball, take the right shots, and don’t continually commit turnovers, they can beat anyone. That’s what Tang’s version of decentralized, position-less basketball is supposed to look like. Everyone has a role, but the role changes from possession to possession. One trip down the floor Perry is the playmaker, and Kaluma is the rim finisher with Carter spotting up from deep. The next trip, Kaluma is the playmaker, Carter is the rim finisher, and Perry is spotting up. Then on the third trip down the court, Carter is running the show, Kaluma is spotting up, and Perry is cutting to the basket. If the offense is working, it’s impossible to focus on stopping one player.
It’s sorta like the hydra. Chop off one head and another equally dangerous head grows back. Spending your defensive resources stopping Perry doesn’t help because either Kaluma or Carter steps into the playmaker role, Perry spreads the floor, and now the defense has to decide if they want to continue expending their effort stopping Perry as they’re getting gashed by Kaluma and Carter. As soon as the defensive focus shifts to one of those guys, Perry comes back online and takes over.
The issue this season is that Kaluma, Carter, and Perry have all struggled as playmakers (with the exception of the BYU game). Tylor Perry was a scorer at North Texas, not a playmaker because he was the dude scoring the points. He averaged 2 assists a game because he couldn’t pass it to himself. Everyone else on North Texas worked to get Perry open. There was a single focus on North Texas offense.
Carter was a finisher last season. He didn’t have to make many plays because that was Nowell’s job. Cam averaged 1.4 assists a game. His job was to play ruthless defense and finish off opportunities that Nowell created. This season he’s been asked to both create and finish plays and while his assists have jumped from 1.4 to 2.6 his turnovers have jumped from 1.5 to 3. He has more freedom in the offense to make plays, but he also has more freedom to make mistakes.
The same goes for Kaluma. At Creighton, he was the guy that finished plays. He only averaged 1.6 assists and still committed 2.1 turnovers. This season his assists are up to 2 a game, but his turnovers are up to 2.8. It’s nice, in theory, to have a multi-focal offense, but it relies on multi-talented players. Carter and Kaluma can create for other players, but I wouldn’t consider it their strength. The same goes for Perry, who reminds me more of Purdue’s Carsen Edwards (a 2 guard playing the point because he’s short) than Markquis Nowell (a point God). Perry can make plays, but he’s more comfortable making those plays for himself like he did at North Texas than making them for other players. I also think he gets stuck in the “if I don’t do it, who will” mentality that served him well at his former school but gets in the way at Kansas State where there are better options than a contested, off-the-dribble 3 from 3 feet behind the line.
The good news is that players tend to get better in this system as the season moves along, and there is no more season remaining. If the offense is finally going to piece things together, it needs to start tonight against Texas. The regular-season matchup ended in a 62-56 Texas win. The ‘Cats had 9 assists, 13 turnovers, shot 5-19 from 3, and were still in the game at the end. That’s impressive. They scored 56 points in a college basketball game and only lost by 6 points. The defense is available if the offense finds a groove.
The last game out against Iowa State is a prime example. Sharing the ball was at a premium again. Perry had 5 assists, Ames had 4, and Carter had 3. Granted, Perry continued his turnover struggles with 6, but that’s OK as long as Kaluma and Carter don’t also have 5 or 6 turnovers. Kaluma put up 23 points with no assists or turnovers, and Carter had 3 assists and 2 turnovers.
Ames coming online is the key. He only played 17 minutes against the Cyclones but had 4 assists as well. When Ames is playing well, Kansas State looks more like Tang’s National Championship-winning Baylor squad with Perry playing the role of Jared Butler and Ames playing the role of Davion Mitchell. That allows Carter and Kaluma to play more like MaCio Teague and Matthew Mayer; finishing off plays instead of trying to make them for other players and turning the ball over or forcing plays for themselves with the same outcome. When Ames and Perry make plays, Kaluma and Carter can finish them.
That’s what I’m looking for tonight.
I want to see Ames and Perry running the show from up top with Kaluma and Carter slashing in from the wings and either finishing plays created by the point guards or using the space created by having 4 shooters to create plays for themselves off the bounce. I want Carter and Kaluma to attack the rim with one thought in mind; namely scoring. If Ames can step up and continue to take some of the playmaking duties away from Perry, Kaluma, and Cam, this team is capable of making a run. They have the finishers, they’re missing the playmakers, and I think Ames can handle the role.
If he does, and the ‘Cats subsequently cut down on the turnovers, they have everything else required to make a deep run in the Big 12 tournament. The defense is there. The finishing is available. If they can simply get up enough decent shots instead of putting their defense on the back foot in transition with turnovers, this team finally has the making of a coherent squad.
Things haven’t gone the way Coach Tang anticipated this season, in multiple ways, but I’ve seen players get better in the system. It’s still possible to pull this thing out of the fire and finish up with a bang. It’s also entirely possible that they turn the ball over 15-20 times against Texas, shoot ridiculous 3’s, and short-circuit their otherwise good defense with terrible offense.
We’ve yet to see the offense put up back-to-back consistent performances. Jerome Tang needs at least 3 if not 4 in a row if he wants an opportunity to sneak into the Tournament. I’ve seen nothing to indicate that’s possible, but I love being wrong.