It’s the offseason, so let’s have some fun speculating about the what ifs.
It’s still jarring to see the Chiefs as a sterling NFL franchise. Long after Hank Stram urged his team to matriculate the ball down the field and Len Dawson smoked a butt on the sidelines (during the first Super Bowl!), the franchise was inept.
Digging into the depleted funds of my memory bank, I find a solid decade of Marty Schottenheimer playoff bungling, drafting Todd Blackledge in 1983 over Dan Marino and Jim Kelly; the whole Scott Pioli disaster, more proof that Bill Belichick’s coaching/management tree is a sad, wilted fern. The off-the-field tragedies — Jim Tyrer, Derrick Thomas, Jovan Belcher — remind us that the heroes in this game are human.
How quickly Patrick Mahomes obliterated that past. Five Super Bowl appearances and three wins in eight seasons. All before he turned 30. And he’s so utterly likable: a real “no, ma’am, yes, sir” type and a family man. (My mother-in-law, who lives in the K.C. suburbs, loves the dude.) Mahomes could set Arrowhead on fire, and he would still be held in the same esteem as burnt ends and the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum.
Why? Let’s look at some numbers, courtesy of a 2019 Ringer article on the Chiefs’ seemingly endless playoffs kicking woes by Rany Jazayerli.
Before January 2019, Mahomes’ playoff debut, the Chiefs were 4-16 in the postseason over 48 seasons; from 1972 to 1985, they didn’t make the playoffs. The Chiefs’ AFL dominance—plus Lamar Hunt’s role in shaping modern-day football—masked a lot of pain. If Mahomes didn’t arrive, today’s Chiefs might be a less forlorn version of the Cleveland Browns: a once-proud franchise whose fans must take shelter in an increasingly dusty history.
Yes, the Chiefs were fortunate to draft Mahomes 10th overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. But another reason behind the move has faded from memory.
In 2008, the Chiefs, coming off a 4-12 season, could have taken a quarterback in the fifth spot. (Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard, not exactly Earl Morrall and Bob Griese, started for a team that put up a whopping 14.1 points a game.) Boston College’s Matt Ryan would have been ideal. But the Falcons needed a QB. Michael Vick was suspended indefinitely by the NFL for dogfighting in August 2007. Atlanta grabbed Ryan, who enjoyed a long, successful career. The Chiefs picked defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey from LSU, who did not.
(A Super Bowl-winning quarterback was taken in the first round of the 2008 NFL Draft: Joe Flacco, who will probably play with every team by the time Travis Kelce gets another questionable haircut.)
It’s never a wise idea for sports fans to go all George Bailey on Christmas Eve, but let’s take that plunge. Suppose Michael Vick decided to take up stamp collecting and not a pastime that made him the most hated man in America for, like, 18 months, and the Chiefs drafted Matt Ryan. Would Kansas City become a dynasty that attracted pop megastars and The Fonz to their home games?
Well, thanks to the good folks at Strat-O-Matic, the market leaders in sports simulation, we can find out. What if the Chiefs had drafted Matty Ice?
Matt Ryan Career Statistics
| Year | Att/Cmp | Yards | TD | INT | Rate |
| 2008 | 332/523 63.5% |
4230 | 28 5.4% |
18 3.4% |
92.2 |
| 2009 | 312/535 58.3% |
3791 | 25 4.7% |
15 2.8% |
84.1 |
| 2010 | 258/420 61.4% |
3058 | 24 5.7% |
4 1% |
98.7 |
| 2011 | 278/473 58.8% |
3330 | 22 4.7% |
16 3.4% |
81.8 |
| 2012 | 273/422 64.7% |
3469 | 26 6.2% |
6 1.4% |
104.9 |
| 2013 | 360/536 67.2% |
4135 | 26 4.9% |
12 2.2% |
97 |
| 2014 | 306/483 63.4% |
3250 | 20 4.1% |
10 2.1% |
88.1 |
| 2015 | 400/592 67.6% |
4504 | 26 4.4% |
10 1.7% |
97.7 |
| 2016 | 363/547 66.4% |
3964 | 29 5.3% |
9 1.6% |
98.4 |
| 2017 | 371/574 64.6% |
4223 | 32 5.6% |
15 2.6% |
94.3 |
| 2018 | 411/596 69% |
5156 | 42 7% |
16 2.7% |
107.9 |
| 2019 | 402/644 62.4% |
4694 | 33 5.1% |
8 1.2% |
96.4 |
Kansas City Year-By-Year with Ryan as the QB
This is a stellar career, complete with three AFC Championship appearances and two Super Bowl losses. It’s not Mahomes Magic, but damn good. Let’s put it this way: Matt Ryan is not paying for a barbecue platter in the KC metro area while he draws a breath.
As for Mahomes, he ends up with the Houston Texans, where he’s still playing. How does this Dad bod-sporting, sidearm-slinging wizard fare without Kelce, Andy Reid, and the red-clad throngs at Arrowhead? Do Texans fans get the unbeatable feeling of Mahomes running a two-minute drive?
Let’s see!
Houston Year-By-Year (Mahomes QB)
In this alternate reality, Mahomes did not make the playoffs until 2023, and he’s only gotten as far as the Divisional Round. But, hey, sometimes it takes a while for an elite quarterback to win the Super Bowl. So many do not.
What’s important is if a quarterback can make a team competitive. Matt Ryan did that in Atlanta. His first season, he took them to the playoffs. He led the Falcons to a Super Bowl, something Vick never did. Look at Randall Cunningham in Philadelphia or Kelly in Buffalo or a pre-Super Bowl winning John Elway in Denver. You had a chance when those guys played. Rooting for a team with a lousy quarterback — and I write this as someone who has seen Tommy DeVito throw a football — is like walking into a gunfight with a water balloon.
I bet how Texans fans feel about C.J. Stroud now, they would feel about Patrick Mahomes. Every Sunday, they would get the gift of hope— the difference between enjoyment and torture. Longtime Chiefs fans know this all too well. Are they obnoxious? No. It’s an ongoing celebration. They remember what it was like before.