It would have been hard to fathom entering the 2025 campaign, but the Chiefs are on the outside of the AFC playoff bracket heading into Week 14. Owners of a mediocre 6-6 record, the perennial Super Bowl contenders are in 10th place in the conference with five games left in the regular season.
The Chiefs are in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014, the second year of head coach Andy Reid‘s brilliant run with the franchise. Patrick Mahomes, now one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the sport, was a freshman at Texas Tech then.
The Chiefs haven’t won fewer than 11 games in a season since Mahomes took the reins in 2018. One more loss would be a career-worst total for Mahomes, and it could be a near-knockout punch for the Chiefs.
Kansas City will enter this Sunday’s game against Houston (7-5, eighth in the AFC) with a 35% chance to rally for a postseason berth, per Next Gen Stats (via Ali Bhanpuri of NFL.com). A win would increase the odds to 49%, while that figure would plummet to 11% with a loss.
The good news for the Chiefs is that they’ll play at home, where they’ve gone a dominant 63-14 in the Mahomes era. On the negative side, they’ll battle the league’s No. 1 defense with what could be a patchwork offensive line. Left tackle Josh Simmons will miss the game with a wrist injury. Meanwhile, right tackle Jawaan Taylor (triceps/knee) and right guard Trey Smith (ankle) haven’t practiced this week. Going without as many as three starting linemen may prove too much to overcome against a pair of superb pass rushers in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
Looking beyond their showdown with the Texans, the Chiefs’ remaining schedule includes games against the bottom-feeding Titans (Week 16) and Raiders (Week 18). However, they’ll also face formidable opponents in the Chargers (Week 15) and Broncos (Week 17), both division rivals.
The Chiefs already lost to the Chargers (8-4) in Week 1 and the Broncos (10-2) in Week 11. It’s hard to imagine Kansas City making up enough ground on Denver to rally for its 10th division title in a row. A wild-card spot, something the Chiefs have never settled for with Mahomes at the helm, presents the more realistic path to a playoff berth.
While the Chiefs rank near the top of the league in offense (fifth), point differential (seventh), and defense (10th), coming out on the wrong end of one-score games has left them in an unenviable position. After finishing a stunning 11-0 in one-score affairs last year, regression in that department has haunted the Chiefs this season. Kansas City is 1-6 in one-score games, which isn’t lost on future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce.
“I’m sure everyone is sick of us saying it, but we’re a few plays away from being a one seed in my mind,” Kelce said this week on his “New Heights” podcast with brother Jason Kelce (via Jaclyn Hendricks of the New York Post). He added that “all of the losses are within one score, and there’s a handful of plays within those games that are determining the outcome.”
The 36-year-old Kelce has been one of the faces of the Chiefs’ dynasty, joining Reid and Mahomes to win three Super Bowls and five AFC titles. Kelce, who could retire after 2025, will decide his future in the offseason. In the meantime, he and the Chiefs have little margin for error as they seek their 11th straight playoff berth.