The Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2025 NFL season as the perennial powerhouse of the AFC West, riding a historic streak of nine consecutive division titles. With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and a roster built for sustained success, the Chiefs remain the team to beat. Yet, the division landscape is evolving, and challengers are closing the gap. Here’s a detailed look at the Chiefs’ chances of winning the AFC West in 2025.
The Chiefs are the consensus favorites to win the AFC West, with most sportsbooks placing them at around -120 to -150 to take the division. This implies a probability of roughly 54-60%. Their regular-season win total is set between 11.5 and 14.5, the highest in the division, reflecting strong expectations from oddsmakers and analysts alike. Kansas City’s playoff chances are estimated at nearly 80%, and their Super Bowl odds are among the top four in the NFL.
Patrick Mahomes continues to be the NFL’s most dynamic quarterback, supported by backup Gardner Minshew and a deep offensive roster. The Chiefs have bolstered their receiving corps with Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice, and rookie Xavier Worthy, while Travis Kelce remains a premier tight end. The backfield features Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, and Elijah Mitchell, offering versatility and depth. Anchored by Chris Jones and a talented secondary led by Trent McDuffie, the defense is well-positioned to remain among the league’s best.
The Denver Broncos are predicted to finish between 8-9 and 13-4, making them the most likely challenger, especially if young quarterback Bo Nix takes a leap forward. Some analysts even predict a potential Broncos breakthrough, but the Chiefs’ experience gives them the edge. With a new coaching staff and improved personnel, the Los Angeles Chargers’ ceiling is also high (up to 13-4), but consistency remains a question. The Las Vegas Raiders, under new coach Pete Carroll, are seen as a long shot, with a projected ceiling of 9-8 and a floor as low as 5-12.
Kansas City’s coaching stability under Andy Reid and the presence of Mahomes provide a foundation that few teams can match. Arrowhead Stadium remains one of the toughest venues for opponents, with the Chiefs going undefeated at home last season. The Chiefs have won nine straight AFC West titles, the second-longest streak in NFL history, and have reached five of the last six Super Bowls.
All three AFC West rivals have made notable upgrades, particularly at quarterback and coaching, making the division more competitive than in recent years. Some analysts caution that the Chiefs’ margin for error has narrowed, and a few injuries or a slow start could open the door for an upset.
While the AFC West is improving, the Kansas City Chiefs remain the clear favorite to win the division in 2025. With elite talent, proven leadership, and a winning culture, anything short of another division crown would be a surprise. However, the competition is stiffer than ever, and the Chiefs will need to maintain their high standards to extend their historic run.