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Arrowheadlines: Analysts split over destination of AFC West crown

July 19, 2025 by Arrowhead Pride

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Chiefs headlines for Saturday, July 19

The latest

Judging 2025 NFL offseason overreactions: Bucs, Browns, more | ESPN

The Chiefs’ streak of nine straight AFC West titles will come to an end

The verdict: OVERREACTION

As wobbly as the Chiefs looked last season, they still won 15 games in the regular season and 17 total. They finished four games ahead of the Chargers and five ahead of the Broncos in spite of conceding the final game of the season in Denver by sitting their starters.

That’s a ton of ground for those teams to make up, even if they both have improved their rosters. Especially because the Chiefs probably got better, too!

They believe they’ve improved at left tackle by signing Jaylon Moore and drafting Josh Simmons in the first round. Wide receiver Rashee Rice was sentenced Thursday to 30 days in jail, which can be served at any point during a five-year probationary period, but is back from the injury that ended his season early. Additionally, Hollywood Brown is back from the ACL injury that forced him to start his season late. Add in the improvements that 2024 first-round pick Xavier Worthy made throughout last season, and Mahomes has reason to feel a lot better about his wide receiver group.

A healthy running back Isiah Pacheco and a slimmed-down tight end Travis Kelce help round out a skill group determined to avenge that embarrassing Super Bowl loss. The Chiefs aren’t giving this division up easily.

Projecting 2025 NFL QBs by Tiers: Where All 32 Will Rank at Season’s End | SI

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes is coming off his worst statistical season of his career, yet he guided the Chiefs to their fifth Super Bowl appearance in six seasons. There are a few reasons to believe he’ll be much better in 2025.

Kansas City was besieged by injury last year, with Rashee Rice and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown being limited to six regular-season games between them. Rice was on a torrid pace before tearing his ACL, catching 24 passes for 288 yards in three games. In the backfield, Isiah Pacheco played only seven games after fracturing his fibula in Week 2. When he returned, Pacheco never looked right, averaging 3.6 yards per carry.

Left tackle was also a revolving door, which saw the Chiefs play Wanya Morris, Kingsley Suamataia, D.J. Humphries and Joe Thuney. In training camp, veteran Jaylon Moore and first-round pick Josh Simmons will battle for the job. With the line constantly in flux, Mahomes was pressured on 23.3% of dropbacks, the ninth-worst rate for a quarterback with at least 300 pass attempts.

This season, the left tackle will be either free-agent signing Jaylon Moore or first-round pick Josh Simmons. Factoring in the continued maturation of second-year receiver Xavier Worthy after posting nine touchdowns as a rookie, Mahomes should be far more dynamic.

Patrick Mahomes Says Luka Doncic, Lakers Trade News ‘Kept Me Up for a Couple Hours’ | Bleacher Report

The Luka Dončić trade to Los Angeles had Dallas Mavericks superfan and Texas native Patrick Mahomes “up for a couple of hours,” processing the shocking move.

“It took me a while [to process everything],” Mahomes told For The Win’s Cory Woodroof. “I was actually at home when the Dončić trade happened in bed like I’m sure a lot of people were, and I remember rolling over and waking my wife up to tell her, like she cared as much as I did. She basically put on a good face for me, but she rolled over, went back to sleep, and it kept me up for a couple hours.”

Mahomes viewed the trade not just through the lens of a fan—having attended Whitehouse High School in Whitehouse, Texas, and playing three years of college football at Texas Tech—but also as someone who has known Dončić since his arrival in the league in 2018. That personal connection made the unexpected late-night deal hit even harder.

“But, it’s more than just a basketball player, man. I’ve known Luka since he was 18 years old in Dallas, and I was down there, like 22 years old,” Mahomes continued, per Woodroof. “So, [I’m] happy for him that he got to get to the Lakers, a great organization, and I’m sure the sky is the limit for them there.”

Overhyped or Underrated? Offseason Buzz Meter for NFL Playoff Contenders in 2025

Kansas City Chiefs

Super Bowl odds: +800

The Kansas City Chiefs can take on an underdog mentality for the upcoming season. The Philadelphia Eagles dismantled them in Super Bowl LIX, and the oddsmakers have underestimated them.

Despite a string of four regular-season losses to the Buffalo Bills, the Chiefs have come out on top in recent playoff matchups between the clubs. Kansas City has a 5-1 record against Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens.

Yet the Chiefs have the third-best odds to win the AFC (+400) behind the Bills (+350) and Ravens (+350). Reminder, Kansas City has won the conference for three consecutive years. The Bills have proved they can beat the Chiefs, but the Ravens haven’t done so outside of one mid-September victory in 2021.

Based on the Chiefs’ recent run as AFC champions, their conference odds should be more favorable.

According to The Washington Post’s Mark Maske, the league may suspend Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice for multiple games for violating the personal conduct policy. Still, Rice’s absence isn’t likely to be a factor late in the campaign.

The Chiefs finished 15th in scoring for the previous two seasons and still advanced to the Super Bowl.

As long as head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes are together in Kansas City, the Chiefs should be top three in odds to win the Super Bowl and top two to win the AFC.

Buzz meter: 3 (underrated)

Former NFL wideout makes bold AFC West prediction for 2025 | Yardbarker

The inability to put most teams away, combined with improvements made by other teams in the division, has the Chiefs as vulnerable as they have been in a while. ESPN analyst and former wide receiver Harry Douglas believes their reign atop the AFC West will end this season.

“For the very first time since Patrick Mahomes has become the starter for the Kansas City Chiefs, they will not win the AFC West,” Douglas said during an appearance on Friday’s edition of ESPN’s “Get Up.” “I am going with the Denver Broncos because of how fantastic they were on defense a season ago, but how they’ve upgraded this season as well.

“Adding a linebacker in Dre Greenlaw, adding (Talanoa) Hufanga at the safety position. That first-round pick was Jahdae Barron from Texas,” Douglas said. “But then when you look at the offensive side of the ball, I look at a guy in Bo Nix, who had the ability to grasp a Sean Payton offense and run it to perfection in his rookie season.”

Around the NFL

Police – Noose found at Titans’ new stadium site; work halted | ESPN

A noose was found at the site of the Tennessee Titans’ new Nissan Stadium, according to the Metropolitan Nashville Police Department, which said Friday that they are investigating the incident.

The Tennessee Builders Alliance, which is leading the stadium construction, said work at the site had been halted amid the investigation.

“This week, a racist and hateful symbol was discovered on our site. There is no place for hate or racism in our workplace,” the Tennessee Builders Alliance said in a statement. “We reported the incident to law enforcement, suspended work, and launched an investigation.”

The group added that a reward has been offered for “information leading to the identification of the individual responsible” and that additional anti-bias training will be required for all workers.

In case you missed it on Arrowhead Pride

Chiefs Roster: Which players are trending going into training camp?

Bulls

T Josh Simmons: The hype train has left the station! The former Ohio State tackle has been getting rave reviews on his attitude, work ethic — and most importantly — his health. Could this be a situation similar to what we saw with Trey Smith’s rookie season, where Simmons begins camp as a starter and never lets go? Based on the trajectory we’ve already seen with the team’s first-round pick, don’t be surprised if he gets the left tackle job quickly.

WR Xavier Worthy: In his rookie season, the former Texas wideout was pressed into action a bit faster than the team probably intended. But when Rashee Rice went down at the start of Game 4, plans had to change. As the season wore on, Worthy delivered, scoring 12 total touchdowns (including playoffs), with two of his best performances in the AFC Championship and Super Bowl. Now it looks like Rice will be suspended, missing part of the upcoming season. When you combine that opportunity with the team’s stated plan to bring back the deep passing game — and (hopefully) have improved pass protection — it adds up to a potential monster season for Worthy. That will start in training camp, as he and Mahomes put in the work to be on the same page downfield.

Others trending in the right direction: Guards Trey Smith and Kingsley Suamataia, tight end Noah Gray and Jake Briningstool, safety Jaden Hicks, running back Isiah Pacheco and linebacker Brandon George.

Social media to make you think

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— Farzin Vousoughian (@Farzin21) July 17, 2025

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