What should we expect from Kansas City this weekend?
As we near the start of the NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs have kept their draft intentions close to the vest.
National analysts seem to alternate between mocking wide receivers or second-tier offensive tackles for Kansas City. Of course, that could be exactly what general manager Brett Veach would want if he was eying a cornerback to replace L’Jarius Sneed’s departure last month or a defensive tackle under rookie control to pair with superstar Chris Jones.
Regardless of the directions the Chiefs go across the draft’s three days, here are some predictions we can make based on recent history.
Kansas City’s first-round selection will have strong athletic testing
Due to multiple trades, the only sample of Veach’s first-round philosophy during his first four drafts was selecting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of LSU with the 32nd selection in 2020. The decision instantly underwhelmed, as Edwards-Helaire’s less-than-ideal athletic testing for a first-round running back proved predictive of his limitations as a pro.
Trent McDuffie is a CB prospect in the 2022 draft class. He scored a 9.49 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 103 out of 2001 CB from 1987 to 2022. https://t.co/pQdk1fUXXF #RAS pic.twitter.com/oN7jpR4YxZ
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 26, 2022
In Veach’s last two drafts, however, he has made three first-round selections: cornerback Trent McDuffie and defensive ends George Karlaftis and Felix Anudike-Uzomah. Per Kent Lee Platte’s Relative Athletic Score, the trio all topped the 87th percentile for athletic testing at their positions. While immediate returns on Anudike-Uzomah were middling, McDuffie and Karlaftis have quickly become among the league’s best defensive players.
Assuming the Chiefs stay in the first round, expect them to again swing on a high-ceiling prospect.
The Chiefs will at least double-dip at a key position group
On a football team, certain rooms need more raw numbers to ensure depth. Most teams roster at least nine offensive linemen, defensive linemen, and defensive backs. Positional flexibility for all three rooms is a prerequisite for successful backups.
In each of his six drafts as Kansas City’s general manager, Veach has seemed to highlight one of these position groups as needing depth — and devote multiple draft picks to addressing it. While the results were not always fruitful, he took multiple defensive line players in 2018 and 2023.
The secondary has been the more frequent multiple swings recipient. While the success of the five defensive backs drafted in 2022 is fresh in our minds, Veach also made multiple moves to reinforce the secondary in 2019, 2020, and 2023.
In 2021, the Chiefs drafted center Creed Humphrey and guard Trey Smith — who now have a combined 101 NFL starts. While two of Veach’s most successful draft picks, both now enter the final seasons of their rookie contracts, meaning at least one is likely to play for a new team in 2025. With Kansas City currently having only eight offensive linemen under contract — well short of the depth needed for offseason practices and training camp — expect Veach to give their room the heavy draft treatment for a second time.
Pay attention to Kansas City’s top-30 visits
NFL teams are allowed to host 30 prospects at team facilities for private visits. Earlier this week, we looked at why teams invite certain players and why Veach values these visits.
Those of us who are obsessed with all things Chiefs should also value whatever information about the visits manages to leak. Last year, wide receiver Rashee Rice and defensive end BJ Thompson visited Kansas City before eventually being selected to wear red and gold. Among the quintet of defensive backs drafted in 2022, Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson are known to have taken Top-30 visits with the Chiefs.
The Chiefs are not always the most transparent team about draft visits. We have written about many of the visits that have been confirmed via online reports in our On the Draft Board series. Some late reported visits, such as North Carolina wide receiver Devontez Walker, have not been covered.
Expect at least a couple of the newest Chiefs to have visited Kansas City privately leading to the draft.
Expect Veach to consider trading late-round picks for 2025 assets
The Chiefs were set to lead off the sixth round of last year’s draft with a pick acquired from the Chicago Bears. Unexpectedly, we learned they had traded that selection to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2024 fifth-rounder.
Last week, Veach stated his staff has 221 players on their draft board. This also conveniently matches the Chiefs’ last currently scheduled pick of 221st overall to lead off the seventh round.
His declaration of that deep of a draft board is contrary to the thoughts of most analysts, who predict a massive drop-off in talent near the fifth round. This is widely expected due to only 58 underclassmen declaring eligibility — the fewest since 2011.
Kansas City also has strong depth on the 90-man roster — outside of the aforementioned lack of offensive linemen. Two dozen players current Chiefs have appeared in multiple games during at least one of the past two seasons — while retaining multiple future years of rookie control should the team desire.
With an extra 2025 third-round selection from the Sneed trade, moving up for a player Veach covets cannot be discounted based on Veach’s history.
On the other hand, Veach has also shown he is willing to acquire a future pick, rather than forcing a selection who may have difficulty cracking a championship roster.