Using data from well over 100 mock drafts from this offseason, we try to predict what Kansas City will do.
During 2024’s offseason, we’ve revealed players projected to the Kansas City Chiefs in 112 mock drafts from various sources around the Internet — most of them from national writers. The vast majority were covered in our daily Arrowheadlines feature. In those instances, we simply showed which college player went to Kansas City in that mock.
But 14 of them were covered in individual Arrowhead Pride articles, in which we provided some local analysis of the writers’ pick — and also updated readers on the results of the mocks presented so far.
Now that we’ve reached Draft Day, let’s examine all the data.
National Mock Draft Picks
Pos | Name | School | Pct |
WR | Ladd McConkey | Georgia | 13% |
WR | Adonai Mitchell | Texas | 13% |
WR | Xavier Worthy | Texas | 13% |
T | Jordan Morgan | Arizona | 9% |
WR | Keon Coleman | Florida State | 7% |
WR | Troy Franklin | Oregon | 6% |
T | Kingsley Suamataia | BYU | 6% |
T | Tyler Guyton | Oklahoma | 5% |
DT | Darius Robinson | Missouri | 3% |
WR | Ricky Pearsall | Florida | 2% |
WR | Brian Thomas Jr. | LSU | 2% |
WR | Xavier Legette | South Carolina | 2% |
WR | Devontez Walker | North Carolina | 2% |
T | Patrick Paul | Houston | 2% |
DT | Jer’Zhan Newton | Illinois | 2% |
DT | Kris Jenkins | Michigan | 2% |
CB | Nate Wiggins | Clemson | 2% |
CB | Kool-Aid McKinstry | Alabama | 2% |
WR | Ja’Lynn Polk | Washington | 1% |
WR | Malachi Corley | Western Kentucky | 1% |
WR | Roman Wilson | Michigan | 1% |
T | Amarius Mims | Georgia | 1% |
T | Graham Barton | Duke | 1% |
DT | Braden Fiske | Florida State | 1% |
CB | Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | Missouri | 1% |
CB | Kamari Lassiter | Georgia | 1% |
TE | Brock Bowers | Georgia | 1% |
DE | Bralen Trice | Washington | 1% |
National Mock Draft Positions
Position | Pct |
Wide receiver | 62% |
Offensive line | 24% |
Defensive tackle | 7% |
Defensive back | 5% |
Tight end | 1% |
Edge rusher | 1% |
Is this the final word on the direction the Chiefs will take with their first pick on Thursday night? Maybe. But maybe not.
This is now the fourth season that we have tracked mock drafts. The experience has taught us that the data can provide some insight into what will happen — and that just like any other draft prediction, it can also get things wrong. But in each one of these seasons, the data has given us at least some solid information — and a year ago, it correctly predicted the Chiefs would take defensive end Felix Anudike Uzomah at the end of the first round.
But to reach that conclusion, we had to remember a lesson we’ve learned during this process: we have to pay attention to how the data changes over time.
In 2024, there were two significant milestones. One of them was on March 18.
Positions selected through March 17
Position | Pct |
Wide receiver | 77% |
Defensive tackle | 13% |
Offensive line | 6% |
Defensive back | 2% |
Edge rusher | 2% |
Players selected through March 17
Pos | Player | School | Pct |
WR | Xavier Worthy | Texas | 19% |
WR | Troy Franklin | Oregon | 15% |
WR | Keon Coleman | Florida State | 13% |
WR | Ladd McConkey | Georgia | 11% |
WR | Adonai Mitchell | Texas | 9% |
WR | Devontez Walker | North Carolina | 4% |
DT | Darius Robinson | Missouri | 4% |
DT | Jer’Zhan Newton | Illinois | 4% |
DT | Kris Jenkins | Michigan | 4% |
T | Tyler Guyton | Oklahoma | 4% |
An overwhelming majority of the mocks we covered through St. Patrick’s Day had Kansas City selecting a wide receiver; defensive tackle was a distant second. In early March — after Xavier Worthy had become the fastest player clocked at the NFL Scouting Combine at Indianapolis — the Texas speedster rocketed to the top of our charts.
But on March 18, picks projected to the Chiefs began reflecting two new realities: that defensive tackle Chris Jones would return to the team in 2024 — and that free agent Hollywood Brown was headed to the team’s wide receiver room.
Positions selected March 18 – 31
Position | Pct |
Offensive line | 45% |
Wide receiver | 41% |
Defensive tackle | 5% |
Defensive back | 5% |
Tight end | 5% |
Players selected March 18 – 31
Pos | Player | School | Pct |
T | Tyler Guyton | Oklahoma | 14% |
T | Jordan Morgan | Arizona | 14% |
T | Kingsley Suamataia | BYU | 14% |
WR | Adonai Mitchell | Texas | 14% |
WR | Keon Coleman | Florida State | 9% |
WR | Ladd McConkey | Georgia | 9% |
T | Amarius Mims | Georgia | 5% |
WR | Xavier Worthy | Texas | 5% |
WR | Ricky Pearsall | Florida | 5% |
DT | Darius Robinson | Missouri | 5% |
These tables show that during this period — which lasted about two weeks — picks were almost evenly divided between wide receiver and offensive tackle. A trio of tackles shared top billing — along with Texas wideout Adonai Mitchell — as Worthy’s star faded.
But on March 31, Kansas City’s second-year wideout Rashee Rice was involved in an automobile accident in Dallas. The immediate read of the situation was that the promising young player could miss the whole season after driving one of two luxury sports cars that were racing each other — and then caused an accident.
Positions selected after March 31
Position | Pct |
Wide receiver | 56% |
Offensive line | 33% |
Defensive back | 9% |
Defensive tackle | 2% |
Players selected after March 31
Pos | Player | School | Pct |
WR | Ladd McConkey | Georgia | 19% |
WR | Adonai Mitchell | Texas | 16% |
T | Jordan Morgan | Arizona | 16% |
WR | Xavier Worthy | Texas | 9% |
T | Kingsley Suamataia | BYU | 9% |
T | Patrick Paul | Houston | 5% |
CB | Nate Wiggins | Clemson | 5% |
WR | Ricky Pearsall | Florida | 2% |
WR | Brian Thomas Jr. | LSU | 2% |
WR | Xavier Legette | South Carolina | 2% |
As we see here, mock drafts immediately began projecting wide receivers to the Chiefs more often — but still not as often as earlier in the offseason. Since the incident, Mitchell, Georgia wideout Ladd McConkey and Arizona tackle Jordan Morgan have led the pack — and in the 13 mocks we covered during the last week, they’re in a dead heat at 23% each.
The bottom line
Does Rashee Rice’s situation really impact Kansas City’s plans for the first pick? In his pre-draft press conference last Friday, general manager Brett Veach acknowledged that the incident “maybe subconsciously” might cause him to lean toward a wideout at 32 — but a more recent report suggests that Rice will be suspended for “multiple games” this season. That phrasing suggests he won’t miss the whole season.
So while Veach’s subconscious mind might be telling him one thing, his conscious mind might be saying something else: Rice will only be gone for part of the season. In addition, both Veach and head coach Andy Reid have recently made it clear that the team intends to put “competition” against second-year tackle Wanya Morris, who currently stands as the team’s left tackle.
So could Mitchell, McConkey and Morgan having equal shots to be the Chiefs’ first pick reflect what the Chiefs are now thinking about the first round’s final selection? It absolutely could.
But as always, we must remember that Veach’s grades for all players will not necessarily match those made by draft analysts — and also that the general manager will not shy away from a trade that he thinks will improve his chance to succeed. Either of those things could make all of this data completely moot.
Just the same, a wide receiver or a tackle now look like good bets at 32 — as do the three Ms: Mitchell, McConkey and Morgan.